Penn State vs. Minnesota score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Penn State vs. Minnesota by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Penn State vs. Minnesota score prediction 2024 / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

A late-season Big Ten matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 4 Penn State hits the road against Minnesota. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Penn State improved to 6-1 in Big Ten play after routing Purdue and emerged as the No. 6 seed in the latest College Football Playoff bracket projection entering Saturday’s game.

Minnesota is coming off a loss at Rutgers but is bowl eligible at 6-4 thanks in part to the nation’s 12th ranked scoring defense, but the team struggles to score, ranking 87th with under 27 points per game, and is just 122nd out of 134 FBS teams in rushing output.

What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Nittany Lions and Golden Gophers square off in this Big Ten matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and Minnesota compare in this Week 13 college football game.

Penn State vs. Minnesota score prediction

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Nittany Lions and by a decent margin, too.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Minnesota by a projected score of 30 to 15 and will win the game by an expected margin of 15 points in the process.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a strong 83 percent chance of outright victory over the Gophers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

Penn State vs. Minnesota odds, how to pick the game

Penn State is an 11.5 point favorite against Minnesota, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -490 and for Minnesota at +375 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Penn State -11.5
• PSU to win -490
• Bet under 45.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a majority of bettors who believe the Nittany Lions will take care of the Gophers, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Penn State is getting 59 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous point spread.

The other 41 percent of wagers project Minnesota will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under 12 points in a loss.

Penn State vs. Minnesota splits

Penn State comes into this weekend ranked No. 9 nationally in scoring margin average per game this season, coming out 19.4 points better than its opponents.

Minnesota is 42nd in FBS in that category, averaging out 4.7 points better than its competition.

Those averages have improved for both teams over the last three games.

Penn State has been 20.3 points better than its opponents over that time, while Minnesota has fared 8.7 points greater than its competition in that span.

But the Nittany Lions still also have a greater edge when considering the venue.

Penn State has been 19.8 points better than its opponents on average when playing on the road this year, while Minnesota has been 8 points greater than the competition at home in 2024.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also strongly favor the Nittany Lions against the Gophers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State emerged as the big favorite on the index, coming out on top in the majority 74.9 percent of the FPI computer simulations of the game.

That leaves Minnesota as the presumptive winner in the remaining 25.1 percent of sims for the matchup.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Penn State is projected to be 9.8 points better than Minnesota on the same field in both teams' current composition, according to the model's latest forecast.

How to watch Penn State vs. Minnesota

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Minneapolis, Minn.

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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