Penn State vs. Purdue score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Penn State vs. Purdue in this Week 12 college football game from an analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

Penn State vs. Purdue score prediction / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Big Ten football kicks off this weekend as No. 4 Penn State hits the road against struggling Purdue. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from the expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Penn State improved to 5-1 in Big Ten play after dominating Washington last week and has a real path to an 11-1 record and sits firmly in the top dozen of the College Football Playoff bracket.

Purdue hasn’t won a game since August, sitting 0-6 in conference and ranking 127th out of 134 FBS teams in scoring with just 18 points per game in a season to forget.

What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Nittany Lions visit the Boilermakers this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and Purdue compare in this Week 12 college football game.

Penn State vs. Purdue score prediction

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Nittany Lions in this Big Ten clash.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Purdue by a projected score of 42 to 8 and will win the game by an expected margin of 34.1 points in the process.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a near perfect 98 percent chance of victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 win percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

Penn State vs. Purdue odds, how to pick the game

Penn State is a 29.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -10000 and for Purdue at +2500 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Penn State -29.5
• PSU to win -10000
• Bet under 51.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a majority of bettors who expect the Nittany Lions to dominate the Boilermakers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Penn State is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big spread.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Purdue will, if not win in an upset, at least keep the final margin under 30 points in a loss.

Penn State vs. Purdue splits

Penn State comes into the game ranked 13th nationally by averaging out 17.2 points better than opponents when counting up the points in its wins and one loss this season.

Purdue is 133rd out of 134 FBS teams in scoring margin, averaging 28.4 points worse than the competition over the course of the season.

Those margins haven’t changed much over the last three games for either team.

Penn State is 12.3 points better than the competition in that span, while Purdue is 28.7 points worse than opponents over that time, also second-worst in the country.

Purdue is 29.5 points worse than opponents when playing at home this year, while Penn State has fared 13.3 points better than its competition when on the road.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also favor the Nittany Lions over the Boilermakers this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State comes out ahead in the overwhelming 97.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Purdue as the presumptive winner in the remaining 9.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Penn State is projected to be 30.9 points better than Purdue on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Penn State vs. Purdue future projections

Penn State is fourth among Big Ten teams with an 83.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts the Nittany Lions will win 10.6 games this season.

Purdue’s season has been over for some time when it comes to any postseason projections.

And the index doesn’t expect the Boilermakers to win again, with a win total expectation of 1.2 games in ‘24.

How to watch Penn State vs. Purdue

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Where: West Lafayette, Ind.
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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