Penn State vs. SMU football picks: What the oddsmakers say

Oddsmakers reveal their prediction for Penn State vs. SMU in this first-round College Football Playoff game.

Penn State vs. SMU football picks, odds 2024 / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

What to expect as Penn State welcomes SMU in the first round of a historic College Football Playoff game, as oddsmakers reveal their predictions for the matchup.

SMU just missed out on winning the ACC title, but still earned a place in the final dozen, at Alabama’s expense, after a strong 11-2 season behind the nation’s fifth-ranked scoring offense.

Penn State is also 11-2, coming close to upsetting Oregon for the Big Ten championship, but still playing well enough all year to earn the right to host this playoff game.

What do the wiseguys expect will happen as the Nittany Lions host the Mustangs?

Let’s check in with the early predictions for Penn State vs. SMU in this first-round College Football Playoff game, according to the oddsmakers.

Penn State vs. SMU picks, odds

Penn State is an 8.5 point favorite against SMU, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel set the total at 53.5 points for the game.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Penn State at -320 and for SMU at +255 to win outright.

Penn State: -8.5 (-112)
SMU: +8.5 (-108)

Over 53.5 points: -114
Under 53.5 points: -106

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Penn State vs. SMU trends

Penn State is 0-3 ATS against ranked opponents ...

SMU is 2-1 ATS against ranked teams ...

Penn State is 3-3 against the spread as a home favorite ...

SMU is 1-0 against the spread as a road underdog ...

Both teams are 1-0 ATS after a loss ...

SMU is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games ...

The total went over in 4 of Penn State’s last 5 games ...

SMU is 3-2 ATS on the road ...

Penn State is 3-4 ATS at home ...

The total went under in 5 of SMU’s last 7 road games ...

Penn State is 6-7 (46.2%) against the spread this season ...

SMU is 8-5 (61.5%) ATS in ‘24 ...

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Spread consensus picks, score prediction

A plurality of bettors expect the Mustangs will give the Nittany Lions a challenge, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

SMU is getting 62 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or keep the final margin to 8 or fewer points in a loss.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Penn State will win and cover the spread in the process.

The game’s implied score suggests a narrow victory for the Nittany Lions over the Mustangs.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Penn State will defeat SMU by a projected score of 31 to 23.

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Our early prediction

SMU +8.5 ... Penn State can run the ball with authority and are strong at stopping it, too, but the Mustangs present another dimension of difficulty with dual-threat quarterback Kevin Jennings, who has the legs and the targets to get behind this secondary.

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How to watch SMU vs. Penn State

When: Sat., Dec. 21
Where: University Park, Pa.

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: TNT network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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