Penn State vs. SMU prediction: Who wins, and why?

What you should watch for as Penn State and SMU meet in this first round College Football Playoff matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Penn State vs. SMU football prediction 2024 / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Here’s what you should watch for as Penn State hosts SMU in this first round College Football Playoff matchup from Happy Valley, with our prediction for the game.

Penn State lost two games this season, both by a touchdown against the two other best teams in the Big Ten, Oregon and Ohio State, but still did enough to earn the first round home game.

SMU also has two losses, both by a field goal, against BYU early on and to Clemson in the ACC title game, both ranked opponents, edging out Alabama for the final spot in the playoff.

What can we expect as the Nittany Lions play host to the Mustangs in this postseason matchup?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Penn State and SMU meet in this first round College Football Playoff game, with our updated prediction.

Penn State vs. SMU prediction: What to watch for

1. Force, meet object. Penn State has rushed for over 200 yards in four games with 15 touchdowns since the loss to Ohio State and had 292 yards against Oregon while amassing 8.3 yards per carry. 

SMU comes into the College Football Playoff ranked fourth among 134 FBS teams against the run, allowing just 2.74 yards per touch and less than 94 yards on the ground per game behind one of the nation’s most cohesive defensive line rotations.

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2. Dynamic offense. SMU comes into the game ranked fifth in FBS with nearly 40 points per game behind the play of dual threat quarterback Kevin Jennings, who personally averages 264 yards each time out and presents a mobility that will keep Penn State’s defense on its toes.

Mustangs back Brashard Smith is another integral piece of the offense, rushing for 1,270 yards and 14 touchdowns, while Roderick Daniels, Jordan Hudson, and Key’Shawn Smith comprise a talented SMU vertical game that can peel off some deep plays and get behind PSU’s secondary.

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3. Battle up front. Penn State should be the best defensive team SMU faces all season, boasting a front seven alignment that has the edge rushers and interior blockers to limit any gains Jennings wants to make with his legs to extend plays.

Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton are two of college football’s best perimeter rushers, presenting a combination of speed and power that can disrupt any passing attack with ease.

And they could have an advantage going against SMU’s edge blockers and close down any outside running lanes for Jennings or Smith and limit them to moderate gains.

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Who is favored?

Penn State is an 8.5 point favorite against SMU, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -310 and for SMU at +245 to win outright.

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Penn State vs. SMU prediction: Who wins?

While the Mustangs’ rush defense has boasted solid production all year long, a lot of that good play has come against overmatched competition.

Penn State presents an entirely different scale of athleticism when running the football, with star backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton working behind a line that doesn’t allow a ton of negative plays.

That gives the Nittany Lions an ability to churn out yards and eat up game clock, playing some of the nation’s best third down offense to boot.

Add in a vertical passing game behind quarterback Drew Allar that has grown more efficient this season working against an SMU secondary that ranks 91st in pass defense, and Penn State has everything it needs to make a statement at home.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Penn State wins 31-27
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Penn State vs. SMU score prediction by football model

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How to watch SMU vs. Penn State

When: Sat., Dec. 21
Where: University Park, Pa.

Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: TNT network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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