Penn State vs. SMU prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Penn State vs. SMU in the first round College Football Playoff game from a football model that simulates games.

Penn State vs. SMU football predictions 2024 / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

History will be made as the 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off on campus as Penn State plays host to SMU in the first round matchup. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical model that simulates games.

Penn State may not have finished as the Big Ten champion, but it still earned the privilege of hosting the first round game, and against one of the country’s hottest teams, as ACC runner-up SMU is playing some of college football’s most potent offense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

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Penn State vs. SMU prediction

The projection models are siding with the home team in this one, taking the Nittany Lions over the Mustangs in their postseason debut.

Penn State is the comfortable favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in the majority 67.2 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves SMU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 32.8 percent of simulations.

In total, the Nittany Lions came out on top in 13,440 of the index’s calculations for the game, while the Mustangs edged out PSU in the other 6,560 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Penn State is projected to be 7.1 points better than SMU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would not be enough for the Nittany Lions to cover the spread against the Mustangs.

That’s because Penn State is an 8.5 point favorite against SMU, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel set the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Penn State at -315 and for SMU at +250 to win outright.

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What the bettors say

A plurality of bets are taking the Mustangs to give the Nittany Lions a real challenge, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

SMU is getting 61 percent of bets to win the game in an upset, or to keep the final margin to 8 or fewer points in a defeat.

The other 39 percent of wagers project Penn State will cover the spread in a victory at home.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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College Football Playoff bracket

No. 12 Clemson at
No. 5 Texas

Winner plays No. 4 Arizona State

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No. 11 SMU at
No. 6 Penn State

Winner plays No. 3 Boise State

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No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Notre Dame

Winner plays No. 2 Georgia

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No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State

Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

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College Football Playoff rankings

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami
14. Ole Miss 
15. South Carolina
16. Clemson
17. BYU
18. Iowa State
19. Missouri
20. Illinois
21. Syracuse
22. Army
23. Colorado
24. UNLV
25. Memphis

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How to watch SMU vs. Penn State

When: Sat., Dec. 21
Where: University Park, Pa.

Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: TNT network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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