Penn State vs. SMU score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Penn State and SMU in this first round College Football Playoff game.

Penn State vs. SMU football score prediction 2024 / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

A historic first-round College Football Playoff game kicks off from Happy Valley as Penn State welcomes SMU on Saturday. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Penn State is this year’s Big Ten title runner-up, but still earned a first round home game to start the playoff behind one of the nation’s more productive defenses.

SMU will challenge that rotation, boasting one of college football’s most potent offenses, ranking fifth nationally with nearly 40 points per game on average.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Nittany Lions play host to the Mustangs?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and SMU compare in this first round College Football Playoff game.

Penn State vs. SMU score prediction

So far, the models are siding with the Nittany Lions to hold serve at home against the challenger Mustangs in this postseason matchup.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat SMU by a projected score of 30 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 5 points in the process.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a strong 62 percent chance of outright victory over the Mustangs.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

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Penn State vs. SMU odds, how to pick the game

Penn State is an 8.5 point favorite against SMU, according to the lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Penn State at -315 and for SMU at +250 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• SMU +8.5
• Penn State to win -315
• Bet over 53.5 points

That would put you in the majority of bets that are taking the Mustangs to give the Nittany Lions a challenge, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

SMU is getting 61 percent of bets to win the game outright in an upset on the road, or to keep the final margin to 8 or fewer points in a defeat.

The other 39 percent of wagers project Penn State will cover the spread in a victory at home.

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Computer prediction

Most other football prediction models also favor the Nittany Lions over the Mustangs.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from each team to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Penn State is the favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in the majority 67.2 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves SMU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 32.8 percent of simulations.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Penn State is projected to be 7.1 points better than SMU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Penn State vs. SMU prediction: What the analytics say

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College Football Playoff bracket

No. 12 Clemson at
No. 5 Texas

Winner plays No. 4 Arizona State

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No. 11 SMU at
No. 6 Penn State

Winner plays No. 3 Boise State

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No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Notre Dame

Winner plays No. 2 Georgia

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No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State

Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

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College Football Playoff rankings

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami
14. Ole Miss 
15. South Carolina
16. Clemson
17. BYU
18. Iowa State
19. Missouri
20. Illinois
21. Syracuse
22. Army
23. Colorado
24. UNLV
25. Memphis

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How to watch SMU vs. Penn State

When: Sat., Dec. 21
Where: University Park, Pa.

Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: TNT network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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