Penn State vs. UCLA prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Penn State and UCLA meet in this Week 6 college football game with our updated prediction.

Penn State vs. UCLA prediction / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Big Ten football kicks off a new-look matchup brought to us by conference realignment as No. 7 Penn State plays host to UCLA at Happy Valley in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at our updated prediction for the game.

Penn State is 4-0 overall and with a 1-0 mark in Big Ten play after taking care of a ranked Illinois in the conference opener last week, holding the Illini to just 59 second-half yards and powering through with 3 touchdowns to pull away.

UCLA is going through it: 1-3 overall, 0-2 in the Big Ten, sitting at 128th in scoring, 133rd in rushing, 89th in passing output, and 105th in scoring defense.

What can we make of the matchup?

Here’s what you should watch for as Penn State and UCLA meet this weekend, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Penn State vs. UCLA prediction: What to watch

1. At the line. It’s no secret that UCLA has struggled running the ball. It ranks 133rd nationally with just 57 rushing yards per game and 129th with 2.48 yards per carry behind a line that isn’t getting much of any push so far. 

Penn State should dominate this phase, ranking 7th in run defense and 4th in FBS allowing 2.3 yards per attempt behind a strong, deep front seven that had 4.5 sacks and 9 TFLs last week alone, and has held 14 of its last 15 Big Ten opponents to under 100 rushing yards.

2. Go deep. With the ground game a sure thing, ranking 9th nationally in production, Penn State needs to keep developing quarterback Drew Allar’s vertical game, a dimension of the offense that has come to life more this season, ranking a very solid 3rd nationally with 10.9 yards per attempt.

Penn State will have to win more games going forward by consistently throwing the football, and getting Allar more aggressive downfield right now against a secondary that will give him plenty of shots will be important to building his confidence.

3. Clean up the penalties. Both these teams are among some of the worst nationally when it comes to committing fouls.

Penn State is 96th in FBS with 28 penalties, averaging 7 per game, losing 264 yards overall and 66 per game as a result.

UCLA is worse, ranking 115th with 31 flags, losing 300 total yards and 75 per game while being flagged 8 times per game.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models favor the Nittany Lions to easily handle the Bruins this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 95.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves UCLA as the expected winner in the remaining 4.6 percent of sims.

Penn State is projected to be 27.3 points better than UCLA on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

Penn State is a 28 point favorite against UCLA, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 46.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -4000 and for Penn State at +1800 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A majority of bets expect that UCLA will keep this game closer than expected.

Around 57 percent of bettors predict the Bruins will keep the game within the line.

And the remaining 43 percent of wagers expect Penn State will win the game and cover the spread.

Penn State vs. UCLA prediction

UCLA can’t do much of anything on the ground, isn’t blocking very well, and isn’t getting a ton of pressure from its front seven, trends that are expected to continue against Penn State’s expert rushing game and dominant defensive front rotation.

And it’s been outscored by 50 points in two Big Ten games.

But it’s worth noting that UCLA has covered the spread in its last two losses, as opposing offenses in LSU and Oregon have followed a path the Nittany Lions likely will this week.

That is, jump out to a comfortable early lead as Allar exposes the Bruins’ vulnerable secondary before the Singleton/Allen duo sets in and slows the game down in the second half.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Penn State 38-13
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Penn State vs. UCLA score prediction by expert model

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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