Penn State vs. UCLA score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Penn State vs. UCLA in this Week 6 college football game.

Penn State vs. UCLA football prediction / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Big Ten football returns to the gridiron this weekend in a new-look conference matchup brought to us by realignment as No. 7 Penn State welcomes UCLA in college football’s Week 6 action.

Penn State is coming off a statement victory over Illinois in its Big Ten opener and playing some strong defense that held the Illini to 59 second half yards last week.

UCLA is going through it: 1-3 overall, 0-2 in the Big Ten, sitting at 128th in scoring, 133rd in rushing, 89th in passing output, and 105th in scoring defense.

What can we expect in this B1G matchup?

For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and UCLA compare in this Week 6 football game.

Penn State vs. UCLA score prediction

As expected, the simulations are strongly in favor of the Nittany Lions this week.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat UCLA by a projected score of 40 to 9 and to win the game by an expected 31.8 points.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a near-consensus 98 percent chance of victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

Who is favored?

Penn State is a 28 point favorite against UCLA, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Penn State at -4000 and for UCLA at +1800 to win outright.

And its set the total at 46.5 points for the game.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Penn State -28
• PSU to win -4000
• Bet over 46.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Nittany Lions in a big win over the Bruins.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State is projected to win the game in 95.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves UCLA as the expected winner in the remaining 4.7 percent of sims.

Penn State is projected to be 27.3 points better than UCLA on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Penn State is third among Big Ten teams with a 59.3 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff and will win 10.1 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives UCLA a win total projection of just 2.9 games and a 2.6 percent shot to become bowl eligible.

How to watch Penn State vs. UCLA

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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