Penn State vs. USC football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Penn State vs. USC by the football model that picks winners.

Penn State vs. USC football prediction / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

A new Big Ten matchup brought to us by realignment kicks off as USC looks to rebound against No. 4 Penn State in college football’s Week 7 action. Let’s take a look at the predictions for the game by the expert football model that picks winners.

USC fell out of the AP rankings this week after moving to 3-2 overall and 1-2 in Big Ten play after a surprise loss at Minnesota last Saturday, and the offense needs to shift into another gear as it lines up against one of the nation’s better defensive front seven units.

Penn State is 8th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just over 11 points per game and enters this weekend ranked No. 7 in FBS in total defensive production, allowing 4.01 yards per play.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

USC vs. Penn State prediction

This week, the models are siding with the home team in this conference game.

USC is the favorite in the matchup, projected to win outright in the slight majority 51.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Penn State as the expected winner in the remaining 48.2 percent of sims.

But it’ll be a very close game, as USC is projected to be just 0.6 points better than Penn State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would make this game an upset.

That’s because Penn State is the 5.5 point favorite against USC, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 50.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -210 and for USC at +175 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Most bettors still have faith in the Nittany Lions to get it done against the Trojans, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A slight majority of bets -- 52 percent -- expect Penn State will win the game and cover the spread.

The other 48 percent of wagers suggest that USC will either win in an upset or keep the game within the 5.5 point spread.

The game’s implied score suggests a narrow victory for the Nittany Lions.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Penn State will defeat USC by a projected score of 28 to 23.

Penn State is third among Big Ten teams with a 61.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives USC a 7.6 win total projection and a 6.8 percent shot at the playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

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How to watch Penn State vs. USC

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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