Penn State vs. USC score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Penn State vs. USC in this Week 7 college football game.

Penn State vs. USC score prediction / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

A new-look Big Ten matchup brought to us by conference realignment gets underway this weekend as No. 4 Penn State hits the road against USC in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game by an expert model that picks winners.

Penn State makes the long trip out west after a four-game homestand from which the team emerged undefeated and 2-0 in Big Ten play, ranking 19th among FBS teams in rushing production and a strong No. 8 nationally in scoring defense, allowing 11.4 points per game.

USC needs a morale boost, and quickly, after a loss at Minnesota last week that dropped the team to a 1-2 mark in Big Ten games and still patching up some defensive issues while Lincoln Riley looks for his first marquee victory as Trojans head coach.

What do the analytics suggest for this Big Ten matchup?

Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and USC compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Penn State vs. USC score prediction

So far, the models are siding pretty strongly with the road team in this game.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat USC by a projected score of 33 to 24 and will win the game by an expected 8.7 point margin.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a strong 71 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a 52.2 win percentage.

Penn State vs. USC odds, picks

Penn State is a 3.5 point favorite against USC, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 50.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for Penn State at -175 and for USC at +150 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Penn State -3.5
• PSU to win -175
• Bet over 50.5 points

Most bettors have more faith in the Trojans at home in this game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Around 53 percent of bets predict that USC will either win in an upset or keep the game within the line.

And the remaining 47 percent of wagers suggest that Penn State will win the game and cover the spread.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models take a different view of the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

FPI is going with USC in this game, projecting the Trojans will win outright in a slight majority 51.7 percent of its most recent computer simulations.

That leaves Penn State as the expected winner in the remaining 48.3 percent of sims.

But it will be a very close game, as USC is projected to be just 0.6 points better than Penn State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Penn State vs. USC prediction: What the analytics say

Penn State is third among Big Ten teams with a 62.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives USC a win total projection of 7.6 games and a 6.4 percent shot at the playoff.

How to watch Penn State vs. USC

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

More ... Penn State vs. USC prediction: Who wins, and why?

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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