Penn State vs. USC prediction: Who wins, and why?

What you should watch for as Penn State and USC meet in this Week 7 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Penn State vs. USC Prediction / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

A new-look Big Ten football matchup kicks off from the Coliseum this weekend as USC returns home to welcome No. 4 Penn State in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for in the game, along with our updated prediction.

USC fell out of the polls after a loss on the road against Minnesota that exposed some nagging issues along the lines of scrimmage, and dropped the Men of Troy to a 1-2 mark in Big Ten play that leaves much to be desired as head coach Lincoln Riley still seeks out a marquee win in his tenure.

Penn State moved up to No. 4 in the AP rankings after beating UCLA last week, combined with some other prominent losses by highly ranked teams, and averages over 217 rushing yards per game while ranking 8th in FBS in allowing just 11 points from opponents.

What can we expect from the Trojans vs. Nittany Lions matchup from L.A?

Here’s what you should watch for as USC and Penn State meet in this Big Ten clash, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Penn State vs. USC prediction: What to watch for

1. At the line. Penn State boasts a front seven rotation that will look to get physical and dominate from the start, and it could have an advantage. USC allowed 3 tackles for loss and 1 sack last week amid a multitude of pressures against its quarterback. Abdul Carter is Penn State’s biggest threat up front, with 3 sacks and 8 TFLs this season.

As a team, the Nittany Lions are 2nd nationally in yards allowed, 1st in stuff rate, and 6th in the country in total success rate, allowing just 4 yards per play.

2. Get physical. USC’s defense is an improved product from last season -- how could it not be? -- but it’s still very average in most phases, and has marked weaknesses in others, especially up front, where it ranks 17th among 18 Big Ten teams in total rushing defense this year.

Michigan and Minnesota both left a blueprint for how to run successfully against the Trojans’ front seven, and Penn State’s superb duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen will only further expose the issues in that alignment, which is 93rd in EPA per rush, and 89th in stuff rate.

The big difference? Penn State can throw the ball a lot better than those other teams can. Drew Allar’s improved vertical game will force USC’s defense to spread things out a little and open up more running room nearer the line to punch through consistent midrange gainers.

3. Air it out. There’s no secret around USC’s offensive game plan, as Riley will look to Moss and a group of dependable receivers to look downfield early and often. Moss has enough mobility to create time if his protection breaks down, and he leads an attack that is 15th in FBS in success rate.

But he could use some more production from his targets, especially sophomore Zachariah Branch, who is yet to really go off this season with just 3 grabs of 20-plus yards, and from tailback Woody Marks, who has run for 100-plus yards in 3 of 5 games, but who is also a capable receiver out of the backfield who can get yards after the catch through traffic.

What the analytics say

While the Nittany Lions are projected as the winner by most analytical models, one simulation model sticks out in picking the Trojans in an upset.

That’s the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

USC actually comes out ahead in most of the FPI’s simulations, projected to win the game in 51.7 percent of the computer’s most recent predictions.

That leaves Penn State as the expected winner in the remaining 48.3 percent of sims.

But it will be a very close game, as USC is projected to be just 0.6 points better than Penn State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Penn State vs. USC prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Penn State is a 4.5 point favorite against USC, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -200 and for USC at +170 to win outright.

A majority of bets give more confidence in the Trojans at home in this matchup, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Around 53 percent of bettors project USC will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the line.

The other 47 percent of wagers expect Penn State will win the game and cover the spread.

Penn State vs. USC prediction: Who wins?

On paper, the Nittany Lions are built to win this game. They have the stronger defensive line and the more productive rushing attack, but their margins of victory thus far are concerning, and it’s appropriate to ask if this team has been properly tested yet.

It beat Bowling Green by 7, led Illinois by a single score until late in that game, and the offense looked listless against UCLA, running for just 2.8 yards per carry.

Penn State’s defense has a relative weakness at the linebacker position and Moss should be able to maneuver his receivers into center field with a battery of midrange passes that can keep the chains moving and the game close much of the day.

But those disadvantages on both lines of scrimmage will become apparent as the game wears on, and the team that can run the ball and stop the run should come out ahead.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Penn State wins 31-27
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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