Penn State vs. Washington score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Penn State vs. Washington in this Week 11 college football game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Penn State vs. Washington score prediction / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Coming off another loss to a conference rival, No. 6 Penn State looks to rebound at home against Washington. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Penn State looks to bounce back from an eighth-straight loss to Ohio State that dropped the team out of the top-four, but still right in the mix for one of the top 12 spots in the College Football Playoff after the debut of the first CFP rankings this week.

Washington improved to 3-3 in Big Ten play after taking down USC last weekend, but comes into this weekend ranked 101st out of 134 FBS teams in scoring offense, averaging 23.6 points per game.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Nittany Lions and Huskies meet in this Big Ten football clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and Washington compare in this Week 11 college football game.

Penn State vs. Washington score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Nittany Lions over the Huskies this weekend.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Washington by a projected score of 32 to 16 and to win the game by an expected margin of 16.4 points.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a strong 85 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Penn State vs. Washington odds, how to pick

Penn State is a 13.5 point favorite against Washington, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -610 and for Washington at +440 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Penn State -13.5
• PSU to win -610
• Bet over 45.5 points

A plurality of bettors are expecting the Nittany Lions will handle the Huskies at home, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Penn State is getting 59 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.

The other 41 percent of wagers project Washington will either win outright in an upset, or to lose the matchup by fewer than two touchdowns.

Penn State vs. Washington splits

Penn State comes into the game ranked No. 13 nationally in scoring margin, averaging out 15.8 points better than opponents so far this season.

Washington is 1.1 points better than the opposition when totaling all the points in ‘24.

Those averages have diverged over the last three games, as Penn State has averaged 3.7 points better than opponents while Washington is 11 points worse on average over that time.

There’s a stark difference between the teams depending on the venue, as well.

Penn State has been 17.2 points better than the competition at home, while Washington has been 11.5 points worse then opponents when playing on the road.

Washington ranks 102nd in FBS with 0.323 points per play on average when playing offense, compared to a Penn State defense that is 8th nationally allowing 0.240 points per play.

Penn State ranks 26th in the country with 0.473 points per play on average in 2024, while Washington is 35th in FBS by surrendering 0.327 points per play on defense.

Computer predictions

Most other analytical models also favor the Nittany Lions over the Huskies in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State comes out ahead in the majority 87.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Washington as the presumptive winner in the remaining 12.9 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Penn State is projected to be 17.2 points better than Washington on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Penn State vs. Washington future projections

Penn State sits fourth among Big Ten teams with a 75.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Nittany Lions a win total projection of 10.5 games this season.

Oregon leads the Big Ten with a 94.3 percent chance at the playoff, followed by Ohio State (92.4%) and Indiana (82.9%) entering this weekend.

Washington has a win total prediction of 6 games, according to the index’s calculations.

How to watch Washington vs. Penn State

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: Peacock

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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