Penn State vs. West Virginia Prediction: Who Wins, and Why

What to expect as Penn State and West Virginia meet in this Week 1 college football game with our updated predictions.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Football Game Prediction / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

As usual, most of the games on the schedule to open the 2024 season include big-time schools up against over-matched competition, but one notable Big Ten vs. Big 12 matchup finds No. 8 Penn State on the road against rival West Virginia in college football's Week 1 action on Saturday.

West Virginia pulled head coach Neal Brown off the so-called hot seat by winning nine games last season, including a strong 5-1 mark at home, despite losing to this Penn State team in last year's opener, and the bulk of a very talented offense comes back to make another little run.

Despite some prominent departures from its elite defensive unit, Penn State remains a top-10 squad with College Football Playoff ambitions, all the more realistic since the expansion of the postseason to 12 teams, and with its two-headed backfield returning alongside former 5-star quarterback Drew Allar.

This is a series that dates back to 1904 between these border rivals, although it took a long break starting after the 1992 game, and Penn State has dominated, leading the Mountaineers 49-9-2 all-time, including last season's 38-15 decision at Beaver Stadium.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here's what to watch out for as Penn State and West Virginia reunite on Saturday, with our updated game prediction.

Penn State vs. West Virginia prediction

How to watch

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

Penn State vs. West Virginia game odds

Lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Penn State: -7.5 (-110)
West Virginia: +7.5 (-110)

Penn State to win: -315
West Virginia to win: +250

Over 50.5 points (-110)
Under 50.5 points (-110)

FPI picks: PSU 77.7% | WVU 22.3%

What to watch for

1. Mountaineers on the ground. West Virginia was fourth nationally by averaging 228.9 yards rushing per game a year ago, led by dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene, who, while throwing for 2,406 yards and 16 touchdowns, ran for 772 more yards and 13 additional scores.

Greene is joined by Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson, two stellar backs who had 1,640 yards and 15 combined touchdowns and together averaged 6.2 yards per carry.

2. Penn State up front. While the Mountaineers project to be another strong rushing team, that combination will go against a Nittany Lions front seven alignment that, while it loses some key pieces up front, still projects to be among the nation's best.

Penn State ranked third nationally last fall by allowing just under 70 rushing yards per game and it led college football in sacks and tackles for loss recorded. This unit, which now features stud rusher Abdul Carter coming off the edge, going against a good West Virginia protection unit will go a long way in determining this game.

3. Allar's deep ball. Penn State's quarterback was inconsistent exploiting deeper passing lanes a year ago, ranking 90th nationally with 6.8 yards per attempt, despite being very efficient with the ball, posting 25 touchdowns against only two interceptions.

Penn State's top-ranked rushing attack helps stabilize the offense, with backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen returning, but this receiver corps, which gained ex-Ohio State target Julian Fleming, should be good again.

Penn State vs. West Virginia prediction

West Virginia quietly led the Big 12 with 33 sacks a year ago, and that front could frustrate what will be a new-look Penn State offensive protection in front of its young quarterback.

But the Nittany Lions' defense should be the best overall unit on the field, boasting depth and speed that should contain the Mountaineers' run game over time, while Penn State eats clock with its own ground attack and opens things up for Allar downfield.

College Football HQ picks...

• Penn State 30-21
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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