Penn State vs. Wisconsin football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical football model offers a new prediction for Penn State vs. Wisconsin in this Week 9 college football game.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin football prediction / Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Big Ten football kicks off under the lights as Wisconsin plays host to No. 3 Penn State on Saturday night. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an analytical model.

Wisconsin improved to 3-1 in Big Ten play on a 3-game win streak, holding those opponents to 16 combined points but the Nittany Lions present a much bigger challenge this week.

Penn State is 9th in FBS in scoring defense, allowing just under 15 points per game and allowed over 20 points in only 2 games this season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin predictions

As expected, the Nittany Lions are big favorites against the Badgers this week.

Penn State is projected to win the game in a majority 70 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Wisconsin as the expected winner in the remaining 30 percent of sims.

In total, the Nittany Lions won out in 14,000 of the index’s simulations of the game, while the Badgers edged out PSU in the other 6,000 predictions.

Despite the confidence the index has in the Nittany Lions, it still projects a close game.

Penn State is projected to be 7.7 points better than Wisconsin on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would still be enough for the Nittany Lions to cover the spread.

That’s because Penn State is a 6.5 point favorite against Wisconsin, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -240 and for Wisconsin at +200 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Most bettors are siding with the Nittany Lions to be better than a touchdown against the Badgers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Penn State is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Wisconsin will either win the game outright in an upset or will keep the margin under a touchdown.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin future predictions

Penn State is third among Big Ten teams with a 73.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives PSU a win total prediction of 10.6 games this season.

Wisconsin is expected to make the playoff with 1.7 percent likelihood, sixth in the Big Ten.

The index projects the Badgers will win 7.4 games this season.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (59)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Clemson
10. Iowa State
11. BYU
12. Notre Dame
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Boise State
18. Ole Miss
19. Pittsburgh
20. Illinois
21. Missouri
22. SMU
23. Army
24. Navy
25. Vanderbilt

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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