Penn State vs. Wisconsin score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Penn State vs. Wisconsin in this Week 9 college football game by an expert model that picks winners.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Wisconsin Badgers score prediction / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

A notable Big Ten football matchup kicks off under the lights this weekend as No. 3 Penn State goes on the road against Wisconsin in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Penn State is one of college football’s 10 remaining undefeated teams and in place to contend for the Big Ten title this season, but can’t get caught looking past this game ahead to a marquee date at home against Ohio State next weekend.

Wisconsin improved to 3-1 in Big Ten play on a three-game win streak, but the quality of competition is about to get a lot tougher against the Nittany Lions’ stout defense.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Nittany Lions and Badgers meet in this Big Ten clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and Wisconsin compare in this Week 9 college football game.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin score prediction

As expected, the models favor the Nittany Lions in a big win over the Badgers this week.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Wisconsin by a projected score of 28 to 18 and win the game by an expected margin of 10 points in the process.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a solid 73 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin picks, odds

Penn State is a 6.5 point favorite against Wisconsin, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Penn State at -245 and for Wisconsin at +198 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Penn State -6.5
• PSU to win -245
• Bet under 47.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a majority of bettors who are taking the Nittany Lions in this matchup, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Penn State is getting 60 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.

The other 40 percent of wagers project that Wisconsin will either win the game in an upset, or keep the score under a touchdown in a loss.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin splits

Wisconsin has been winning its games at home by an average margin of 9.3 points this season.

And that number has increased in a big way over the last three games, as the Badgers have been 33.7 points better than the opposition in that span.

Penn State has proven 12.5 points better than its opponents when playing on the road in ‘24.

And the Nittany Lions have been 11 points better than other teams over their last three games.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models favor the Nittany Lions over the Badgers in this conference clash.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State is projected to win the game outright in the majority 70 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Wisconsin as the expected winner in the remaining 30 percent of sims.

Penn State is projected to be 7.7 points better than Wisconsin on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin future predictions

Penn State is third among Big Ten teams with a 73.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Nittany Lions a win total prediction of 10.6 games this season.

Wisconsin has a 96.1 percent shot to become bowl eligible in ‘24, according to the index’s calculations.

And the FPI gives the Badgers a win total projection of 7.4 games this year.

How to watch Penn State vs. Wisconsin

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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