Penn State vs. Wisconsin prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Penn State visits Wisconsin in this Week 9 college football game, with our updated prediction for this Big Ten clash.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Wisconsin Badgers Prediction / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Big Ten football returns with a notable conference matchup as No. 3 Penn State hits the road against Wisconsin in college football’s Week 9 action. Here’s what you should watch for, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Penn State improved to 3-0 in Big Ten play with a signature win at USC two weeks ago and returns from its open date heading into one of the nation’s more challenging atmospheres against a team on a little hot streak of its own.

Wisconsin moved to 3-1 in conference games on a 3-game win streak, holding all 3 of those teams to under 10 points behind some notable defensive improvements.

What can we expect as the Nittany Lions and Badgers square off in this Big Ten clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as Penn State and Wisconsin meet in this Week 9 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin prediction: What to watch

1. Pressure the QB. Penn State plays some of college football’s better defense up front and wants to get after Badgers quarterback Bradeyn Locke. He’s only been sacked 5 times this year behind some good protection, but when pressured, he’s hitting just 9 of 24 passes (37.5%) with a touchdown and two picks, compared to 64% completion when not under duress.

2. On the ground. Tawee Walker has found a rhythm for the Badgers during their win streak, running for 418 yards and 6 touchdowns and he’s working behind an experienced line that has nearly 150 career starts. But the Nittany Lions are solid against the run, ranking 10th nationally allowing 3.2 yards per carry and only 3 touchdowns from opposing backs all year.

3. The big plays. Wisconsin’s front seven doesn’t generate a ton of negative plays and gets less than 2 sacks per game, which should play into the hands of Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, who has struggled at times when throwing the ball under pressure.

But he should have more time in the pocket to allow his receivers to find room against some solid Badger defensive backs, establish their patterns, and move into the deeper portion of the field. 

Allar has played quality football this year and boasts proven arm strength, but he still lacks that signature performance that really dominates a game from start to finish.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models favor the Nittany Lions over the Badgers in this conference tilt.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State is expected to win the game outright in the majority 70.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Wisconsin as the expected winner in the remaining 29.9 percent of sims.

Penn State is projected to be 7.7 points better than Wisconsin on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

Penn State is a 6.5 point favorite against Wisconsin, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Penn State at -235 and for Wisconsin at +195 to win outright.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin prediction: Who wins?

Wisconsin’s offensive strength is running the football, and that plays into what is arguably Penn State’s strong suit, defending against the run.

And while the Badgers’ win streak is to be celebrated after ugly losses against Alabama and USC, those victories came at the expense of three of the Big Ten’s most lackluster teams.

Wisconsin’s front seven isn’t making enough noise behind the line to emerge as a credible threat against a Penn State offensive line that so far is doing its job keeping the quarterback clean and opening consistent lanes for the team’s two star backs.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Penn State wins 31-16
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

How to watch Penn State vs. Wisconsin

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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