Penn State vs. West Virginia prediction, Week 1 college football picks, odds, lines

Expert predictions for Penn State vs. West Virginia by the computer analytics model that picks college football games.

West Virginia vs. Penn State predictions, Week 1 college football picks, odds, lines / Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

Penn State and West Virginia renew their rivalry on Saturday in a marquee Big Ten vs. Big 12 matchup that could play a role in influencing the playoff later on in college football's Week 1 action.

The expansion of the College Football Playoff figures to benefit Penn State, a good, if not great, team under head coach James Franklin, whose record against ranked teams has so far prevented it from being a genuine contender in the Big Ten.

West Virginia won nine games a year ago, pulling head coach Neal Brown off the proverbial hot seat, and went 5-1 at home while posting college football's third-ranked rushing attack, the core of which returns this season, led by dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Penn State vs. West Virginia picks, predictions

The computers side with the Nittany Lions, who have a dominant 77.7 percent chance to win the game, according to models that simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Conversely, the model projects the Mountaineers will take down Penn State in the remaining 22.3 percent of its simulations.

Penn State is an 8.5 point favorite against West Virginia, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 51.5 points for the game.

The index currently suggests that Penn State is 13.8 points better than West Virginia on any field.

Penn State is forecasted to win 10.1 games this season, ranking third in the Big Ten with a 59.3 percent chance to make the playoff and a 6.5 percent shot to win the national title.

West Virginia is projected to win 6.3 games this season by the model's estimate, with a 64.7 percent shot to become bowl eligible, and a 6.3 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Penn State vs. West Virginia game time, schedule

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia (46 first-place votes)
2. Ohio State (15)
3. Oregon (1)
4. Texas
5. Alabama
6. Ole Miss
7. Notre Dame
8. Penn State
9. Michigan
10. Florida State
11. Missouri
12. Utah
13. LSU
14. Clemson
15. Tennessee
16. Oklahoma
17. Oklahoma State
18. Kansas State
19. Miami
20. Texas A&M
21. Arizona
22. Kansas
23. USC
24. NC State
25. Iowa

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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