Pittsburgh vs. SMU football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for Pittsburgh vs. SMU in this Week 10 college football game loaded with ACC title implications.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU football prediction / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

ACC rivals undefeated in conference play face off this weekend as No. 20 SMU plays host to No. 18 Pittsburgh with league title implications. Let’s check in on the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

SMU improved to 4-0 in ACC play by a narrow margin last week, escaping at Duke by a single point despite 6 turnovers and needing a failed 2-point conversion to pull out the win.

Pittsburgh is one of college football’s eight remaining undefeated teams and can move into a second-place tie with Miami in the ACC standings with a win over the Mustangs.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU predictions

So far, the simulations are siding strongly with the home team against its undefeated challenger.

SMU is expected to win the game in the majority 70.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Pittsburgh as the presumptive winner in the remaining 29.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Mustangs came out ahead in 14,040 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Panthers edged out SMU in the other 5,960 predictions.

What can we expect for a margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.

SMU is projected to be 7.7 points better than Pittsburgh on the same field in the latest simulations of both teams head to head, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be just enough to cover the spread.

That’s because SMU is a 7.5 point favorite against Pittsburgh, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it set the moneyline odds for SMU at -295 and for Pittsburgh at +235 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, the majority of bettors are expecting the Panthers to give the Mustangs a challenge, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Pittsburgh is getting 78 percent of bets to either win outright in a road upset, or to keep the game to a touchdown or less in a loss.

The other 22 percent of wagers project SMU will win the game and cover the spread.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU future predictions

SMU is third among ACC teams with a 20.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That puts the Mustangs behind Clemson (33.7%) and ACC leader Miami (89%) in that category.

SMU will win 10.3 games this season, according to the model’s latest win projection totals.

Pittsburgh is right behind, ranking fourth in the ACC with a 20.5 percent chance to make the playoff this year.

That projection includes a 9.4 win estimate for the Panthers, according to the index.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (61)
2. Georgia (1)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
11. Clemson
12. Iowa State
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Boise State
16. LSU
17. Kansas State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Ole Miss
20. SMU
21. Army
22. Washington State
23. Colorado
24. Illinois
25. Missouri

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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