Pittsburgh vs. SMU prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Pittsburgh and SMU in this Week 10 college football game with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU Prediction / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

A critical ACC matchup finds two teams undefeated in conference play on the same field as No. 18 Pittsburgh goes on the road against No. 20 SMU in college football’s Week 10 action. Here’s what you should watch for, with our updated prediction for the game.

Pittsburgh scrambled Syracuse a week ago behind some gutsy defense that resulted in 3 of the team’s 5 interceptions being returned for touchdowns, moving to 7-0 on the year as one of college football’s eight remaining undefeated teams.

SMU pulled out a 1-point win at Duke last time out despite suffering 6 turnovers and needing a flubbed 2-point try to escape with the victory, improving to 7-1 overall with a 4-0 mark in ACC play.

What can we expect as the Panthers and Mustangs to head to head in this ACC clash?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Pittsburgh and SMU meet in this Week 10 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU prediction: What to watch for

1. Pressure. Pitt recorded 12 sacks in its first 5 games, but added 10 more sacks to that total over its last 2 outings behind an ever-more confident linebacker group, ranking 20th nationally and averaging 3.14 sacks per game.

SMU is strong in protection and isn’t letting a ton of negative plays through, allowing just 1.13 sacks per game and only 9 total all year, combined with 4.25 tackles for loss allowed per game.

2. At the line. SMU’s blockers have paved the way for a productive rushing attack, one that ranks 23rd nationally with 201 yards per game, averaging 4.73 yards per carry and totaling 19 touchdowns.

But the Panthers are up to the task, ranking 9th in FBS in rush defense, allowing 94 yards on average, only 2.52 yards per carry, and just 6 total TDs on the ground, 6th nationally.

3. Injury watch. For both quarterbacks, too. SMU’s Kevin Jennings has been cleared to play after suffering an undisclosed issue last week. Good thing for the Mustangs: he’s 5-0 as the starter with 10 TDs and 5 picks, and is a capable runner, with 321 yards and 3 more touchdowns at the helm of the ACC’s third-ranked scoring offense.

Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein was also cleared to play, head coach Pat Narduzzi confirmed, after the player was hurt on a run last week. He has 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions and plays his best football in the fourth quarter, hitting 75% of his throws with 4 scores and no turnovers.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU splits

So far this year, Pittsburgh has averaged 12.7 points better than its opponents on the same field, while SMU has fared 12.9 points better than the competition in 2024.

Over the last three games, both teams have played similarly against their respective opponents.

Pittsburgh has been 13.3 points better on average than its opponents in that time, while SMU has been 12.7 points better than the competition over that span.

When playing on the road, Pitt has seen its margin of victory decline, winning games by 5.5 points on average against opponents away from home.

SMU has been 15.7 points better than opponents on average when playing at home this season.

Pitt’s offense vs. SMU’s defense

Pittsburgh ranks 19th nationally with 35.5 points per game on average, going against an SMU defense that is 51st in FBS by allowing 23.4 points per game.

In total production, the Panthers’ offense is averaging 408 yards per game this season, ranking 44th in the country, while the Mustangs’ defense is 45th in surrendering 351.3 yards per game.

Pittsburgh ranks 15th among 134 FBS teams by averaging 0.534 points per play this season, compared to SMU, which is 38th on defense by allowing 0.325 points per play on average.

On third down, Pitt ranks just 94th nationally by moving the chains on 36.11 percent of conversion opportunities, while SMU is 38th in FBS by allowing opponents to move the chains on 34.31 percent of third down chances.

Pitt is 33rd in red zone scoring nationally, coming away with points on 90.48 percent of chances inside the opponents’ 20, while SMU allows points on 82.61 percent of opportunities.

SMU’s offense vs. Pitt’s defense

SMU ranks No. 17 nationally by averaging 36.3 points per game this season, going up against a Pittsburgh defense that is 44th in surrendering 22.8 points per game on average.

When weighing total offense, SMU is posting 421.9 yards per game this season, ranking 37th in the country, against a Pitt defense allowing 356.2 yards per game, ranking No. 50 in FBS.

SMU is averaging 0.522 points per play on average offensively, ranking No. 19 nationally in that category, compared to a Pitt defense that is 16th on defense allowing 0.281 points per play this season.

SMU posts 6.1 yards per play in total offensive output, ranking No. 35 in FBS, but the Panthers are 9th nationally surrendering 4.4 yards per play.

On third down, the Mustangs move the chains 43.33 percent of the time, ranking No. 36 in FBS, while the Panthers are allowing conversions on 30.93 percent of chances.

SMU has converted 26 of its 32 red zone opportunities into points, for an 81.25 percent success rate, and 21 of those 26 scores (65.53 percent) are touchdowns.

What the analytics say

Most other analytical models are siding with the Mustangs over the undefeated Panthers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

SMU is expected to win the game in the majority 70.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Pittsburgh as the presumptive winner in the remaining 29.8 percent of sims.

SMU is projected to be 7.7 points better than Pittsburgh on the same field in the latest simulations of both teams head to head, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

SMU is a 7.5 point favorite against Pittsburgh, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it set the moneyline odds for SMU at -275 and for Pittsburgh at +220 to win outright.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU prediction: Who wins?

Pittsburgh has the defensive personnel to contain the Mustangs’ skill threats, but they have played in some close games and haven’t really met a team this talented yet this season.

SMU can pack a punch running the ball, and the added bonus of Jennings’ mobility could be just the combination to eventually outmaneuver Pitt’s aggressive front seven pursuers.

Holstein’s passing output has been on-and-off this season and if he doesn’t play his best game, that could allow room for the Mustangs to pull away, but SMU’s turnover issues in recent outings could make this closer than the home crowd would prefer.

College Football HQ picks ...

• SMU wins 29-23
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Pittsburgh vs. SMU score prediction by expert model

How to watch Pitt vs. SMU

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 8 p.m. ET | 7 p.m. CT
TV: ACC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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