Pittsburgh vs. SMU score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Pittsburgh vs. SMU in this Week 10 college football game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU score prediction / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

A pair of teams undefeated in conference play meet up this weekend as No. 20 SMU plays host to No. 18 Pittsburgh in a game full of ACC title implications. Let’s check in with the updated prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

Pittsburgh shredded Syracuse a week ago thanks to some defensive heroics that included three interceptions returned for touchdowns and moved the team to 7-0 on the year.

SMU needed Duke to miss a 2-point try late last week to escape with a 1-point victory despite 6 turnovers of its own on the road and sits at 4-0 in ACC play.

What do the analytical models suggest as the Mustangs and Panthers meet in this ACC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Pittsburgh and SMU compare in this Week 10 college football game.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU score prediction

So far, the models are giving the home team a slight edge in this critical matchup.

SP+ predicts that SMU will defeat Pittsburgh by a projected score of 30 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 4.9 points in the process.

The model gives the Mustangs a 62 percent chance of outright victory regardless of margin.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Pitt vs. SMU picks, odds

SMU is a 7.5 point favorite against Pittsburgh, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it set the moneyline odds for SMU at -275 and for Pittsburgh at +220 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Pittsburgh +7.5
• SMU to win -275
• Bet under 58.5 points

So far, the majority of bettors are expecting the Panthers to give the Mustangs a challenge, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Pittsburgh is getting 78 percent of bets to either win outright in a road upset, or to keep the game to a touchdown or less in a loss.

The other 22 percent of wagers project SMU will win the game and cover the spread.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU splits

So far this year, Pittsburgh has averaged 12.7 points better than its opponents on the same field, while SMU has fared 12.9 points better than the competition in 2024.

Over the last three games, both teams have played similarly against their respective opponents.

Pittsburgh has been 13.3 points better on average than its opponents in that time, while SMU has been 12.7 points better than the competition over that span.

When playing on the road, Pitt has seen its margin of victory decline, winning games by 5.5 points on average against opponents away from home.

SMU has been 15.7 points better than opponents on average when playing at home this season.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models are siding with the Mustangs over the undefeated Panthers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

SMU is expected to win the game in the majority 70.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Pittsburgh as the presumptive winner in the remaining 29.8 percent of sims.

What can we expect for a margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.

SMU is projected to be 7.7 points better than Pittsburgh on the same field in the latest simulations of both teams head to head, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU future predictions

SMU is third among ACC teams with a 20.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That puts the Mustangs behind Clemson (33.7%) and ACC leader Miami (89%) in that category.

SMU will win 10.3 games this season, according to the model’s latest win projection totals.

Pittsburgh is right behind, ranking fourth in the ACC with a 20.5 percent chance to make the playoff this year.

That projection includes a 9.4 win total estimate for the Panthers, according to the index.

How to watch Pitt vs. SMU

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 8 p.m. ET | 7 p.m. CT
TV: ACC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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