Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse in this Week 9 college football game by an expert model that picks winners.

Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse score prediction / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

College football gets an early start as No. 19 Pittsburgh looks to preserve its undefeated record against upset-minded Syracuse on Thursday night. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical model that picks winners and projects scores.

Pittsburgh is one of college football’s 10 remaining undefeated teams, coming in at 6-0 this week, quite a turnaround from the school’s 3-9 mark a year ago, spurred by a combination of elite run defense and productive quarterback play from Eli Holstein under center.

Syracuse can move the ball, too, ranking No. 2 nationally in passing production with 365 yards per game behind the play of quarterback Kyle McCord, and the Orange is just 2 points away from being undefeated itself this season.

What do the analytics suggest for this early ACC football clash?

For that, let’s check in with the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Pittsburgh and Syracuse compare in this Week 9 college football game.

Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse score prediction

So far, the models are siding with the Panthers against the Orange, but in what could be a close game.

SP+ predicts that Pittsburgh will defeat Syracuse by a projected score of 32 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.9 points.

The model gives the Panthers a 69 percent chance of outright victory in the matchup.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse picks, odds

Pittsburgh is a 6 point favorite against Syracuse, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 62.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Pittsburgh at -215 and for Syracuse at +180 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Pittsburgh -6
• Pitt to win -215
• Bet under 62.5 points

That would be going against the grain when looking over the latest spread consensus picks for the game, with a slight majority taking the Orange over the Panthers.

Syracuse is getting 53 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final score under 6 points in a loss.

The other 47 percent of wagers project that Pittsburgh will beat the Orange by at least a touchdown and cover the spread.

Computer prediction

Most analytical models are going with the Panthers over the Orange in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Pittsburgh is projected to win the game in 69.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Syracuse as the expected winner in the remaining 30.5 percent of sims.

Pittsburgh is projected to be 7.5 points better than Syracuse on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

That would also be enough for Pitt to cover the spread.

Pitt is fourth among ACC teams with a 12.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.7 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Syracuse a 0.6 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff and a win total prediction of 7.1 games in 2024.

How to watch Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh

When: Thurs., Oct. 24
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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