SMU vs. Nevada score prediction by college football computer model

What the analytics predict for SMU vs. Nevada in this Week 0 college football game.

SMU vs. Nevada game predictions by a college football analytic model / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Week 0 of the 2024 college football season gets underway today as ACC newcomer SMU goes on the road against a Nevada team in the midst of a rebuild under new management.

What can we expect from the matchup? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN projects the game, along with the latest betting information.

SMU vs. Nevada predictions

Score prediction

As expected, the simulations strongly favor SMU to win the game.

SP+ predicts the Mustangs will defeat the Wolf Pack by a projected score of 42 to 15 and will win the game by an expected 26.8 points.

The model gives SMU the 95 percent chance for outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Point spread

SMU is a 24.5 point favorite against Nevada, according to the game lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 56.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for SMU at -3500 and for Nevada at +1280.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• SMU -24.5
• SMU to win -3500
• Bet over 56.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools are also picking SMU to take down Nevada in the 2024 opener.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects that SMU will win the game in 86.4 percent of its simulations, while Nevada wins out in the remaining 13.6 percent of sims.

The computer predicts a big win for the Mustangs, suggesting they will defeat the Wolf Pack by a projected 20.2 points in the game, not enough to cover this line.

More: College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 0 games

SMU vs. Nevada game time, schedule

When: Sat., Aug. 24
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS Sports Network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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