South Carolina vs. Illinois score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for South Carolina vs. Illinois in the 2024 Citrus Bowl game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

South Carolina vs. Illinois football score prediction 2024 / Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

South Carolina and Illinois will face off in the 2024 Citrus Bowl game on New Year’s Eve. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

South Carolina is one of college football’s hottest teams, winning six straight games, including against ACC champion Clemson, the longest streak of any SEC team and playing some of the country’s best defense up front.

Illinois is seeking a double-digit winning season for the first time since 2001 and concluded the regular season on a three-game win streak in the Big Ten.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Illini and Gamecocks meet in the postseason?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Illinois and South Carolina compare in college football’s Citrus Bowl game.

South Carolina vs. Illinois score prediction

This model is favoring the SEC team over its Big Ten challenger in the bowl game, and by a double digit margin on the field.

SP+ predicts that South Carolina will defeat Illinois by a projected score of 30 to 20 and will win the game by an expected margin of 10.3 points in the process.

The model gives the Gamecocks a strong 74 percent chance of outright victory over the Illini.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 392-365-9 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage.

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Citrus Bowl odds, how to pick the game

South Carolina is a 9.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for South Carolina at -330 and for Illinois at +260 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• South Carolina -9.5
• Gamecocks to win -330
• Bet over 49.5 points

A slight majority of bettors are taking the other side of this matchup, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Illinois is getting 56 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset or to keep the final margin under 10 points in a loss.

The other 44 percent of wagers project South Carolina will win the game by at least 10 points and cover the point spread.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models expect the Gamecocks to handle the Illini in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

South Carolina is the big favorite in the game according to the index, coming out on top in 72.3 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

While the Illini aren’t projected to win the game, they still edged out the Gamecocks in the other 27.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

When taking an average of all the computer’s simulations, South Carolina is projected to be 8.5 points better than Illinois on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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How to watch the 2024 Citrus Bowl Game

When: Tues., Dec. 31
Where: Orlando, Fla.

Time: 3 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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