South Carolina vs. Missouri football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for South Carolina vs. Missouri in this Week 12 college football game by an analytical model that simulates games.

South Carolina vs. Missouri football prediction / Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

An important SEC game kicks off on Saturday as No. 21 South Carolina hosts No. 23 Missouri in this battle of College Football Playoff ranked teams. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical model that simulates games.

South Carolina made its debut in the College Football Playoff rankings this week after knocking off Vanderbilt on the road and sits at 6-3 overall with a 4-3 mark in SEC play.

Missouri improved to 3-2 in conference games after taking out Oklahoma at home a week ago and at 7-2 overall is still in the mix for a decent postseason billing.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

South Carolina vs. Missouri prediction

So far, the models are siding with the home team Gamecocks to take down the Tigers.

South Carolina is the early favorite in the game, projected to come out ahead in the majority 69.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Missouri as the expected winner in the remaining 30.5 percent of sims.

In total, the Gamecocks win out in 13,900 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Tigers edged out Carolina in the other 6,100 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

South Carolina is projected to be 7.4 points better than Missouri on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because South Carolina is a 12.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for South Carolina at -530 and for Missouri at +390 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A majority of bettors expect the Tigers to challenge the Gamecocks on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Missouri is getting 59 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin under 13 points in a loss.

The other 41 percent of wagers project South Carolina to win the game and cover the spread.

South Carolina vs. Missouri future projections

South Carolina is an outlier in the College Football Playoff picture, ranking eighth in the SEC with a 6.5 percent chance to qualify for the 12-team format, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Gamecocks will win 8.1 games this season.

Missouri will win 8.6 games in 2024, according to the index.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. BYU
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia
13. Boise State
14. SMU
15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas State
17. Colorado
18. Washington State
19. Louisville
20. Clemson
21. South Carolina
22. LSU
23. Missouri
24. Army
25. Tulane

How to watch Missouri vs. South Carolina

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 4:15 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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