South Carolina vs. Missouri prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as South Carolina and Missouri square off in this Week 12 matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

South Carolina vs. Missouri Prediction / Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

SEC football kicks off this weekend as No. 23 Missouri hits the road against No. 21 South Carolina. Here’s what you should watch for, with our updated prediction for the game.

South Carolina is on a roll lately, winning three straight games, averaging 36 points each time out during that streak, and working behind one of college football’s best defensive units right now.

Missouri moved to 3-2 in SEC play after knocking off Oklahoma last week and, while this wasn’t quite what it expected after winning 11 games a year ago, there’s still a path to the College Football Playoff if the Tigers can win out the rest of the way.

What can we expect as the Gamecocks welcome the Tigers in this SEC clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as South Carolina and Missouri meet in this Week 12 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

South Carolina vs. Missouri prediction: What to watch

1. Battle up front. South Carolina’s calling card remains that ferocious defensive front seven, ranking third nationally with 33 total sacks this season while averaging 3.67 sacks per game.

The Gamecocks are also sitting top 15 in FBS with 69 tackles for loss and 7th with 7.67 negative plays per game, ranking 3rd by depriving opponents of 353 total yards as a result of those stops.

Missouri is just 77th nationally allowing 2.22 sacks per game and 20 sacks on the season and is 43rd in the country surrendering 45 tackles for loss this year and 5 negative plays per game.

2. Air it out. Drew Pyne is expected to step in at quarterback for Missouri as starter Brady Cook is still dealing with injuries, and while he has two of the nation’s top skill threats in Luther Burden and Theo Wease at his disposal, the Gamecocks have been stingy against the pass.

Carolina ranks 33rd in FBS allowing just over 194 passing yards per game, is holding opposing quarterbacks to just 55.8 percent completion, has intercepted 11 passes, and surrendered only 7 touchdowns in the air.

Burden and Wease will be the best receivers on the field in this game, but Missouri will have to get the ball out to them fast to counter the Gamecocks’ pass rush off the edges.

3. Ground and pound. South Carolina has markedly improved its blocking since the idle week, allowing no sacks in that time after surrendering 10 prior to that point, and the result is a more efficient offense, especially when it comes to running the football.

Raheim Sanders is coming off his second-straight and third overall game with 100 rushing yards and 5 of his 10 touchdowns have come over his last three appearances. 

Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers is a capable threat on the ground, too, ranking second on the team in rushing with 4 of the team’s 18 touchdowns on the ground.

Missouri is respectable but not spectacular at defending against the rush, ranking 52nd nationally by allowing 133 yards per game and just under 4 yards per carry with only 10 touchdowns allowed, and 9 of those came in the team’s 2 losses.

What the analytics say

Most football computer prediction models are siding with the Gamecocks over the Tigers this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

South Carolina comes out ahead in the majority 69.6 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

The other 30.4 percent of sims project the Tigers will pull off the upset and avoid a third loss.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

South Carolina is projected to be 7.4 points better than Missouri on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Rounding that number down, let’s call it a touchdown game in favor of the Gamecocks by this projection.

More ... South Carolina vs. Missouri prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

South Carolina is a 13.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 41.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for South Carolina at -630 and for Missouri at +450 to win outright.

South Carolina vs. Missouri prediction: Who wins?

The most important matchup in this game will be Carolina’s defensive front against Missouri’s blockers, and while the Gamecocks should win in the trenches, the Tigers are capable enough to hold things up for a while to slow down those edge rushers to an extent.

Missouri has the capacity to marginally disrupt Carolina’s attempt to control the game by running the ball and force Sellers to throw the ball a little more than Shane Beamer would prefer him to.

But the Tigers’ quarterback situation is precarious enough to confidently pick against their solid receivers from doing enough damage to pull off any upset here.

College Football HQ picks ...

• South Carolina wins 27-16
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

More ... South Carolina vs. Missouri score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Missouri vs. South Carolina

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 4:15 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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