South Carolina vs. Missouri score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for South Carolina vs. Missouri in this Week 12 college football game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

South Carolina vs. Missouri score prediction 2024 / Ken Ruinard/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

A notable late-season SEC game kicks off this weekend as No. 21 South Carolina welcomes No. 23 Missouri. Let’s check in with the new prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

South Carolina improved to 4-3 in SEC play with an important win at Vanderbilt last weekend thanks in large part to a strong defense that ranks 12th nationally in scoring, allowing just 17 points per game this season.

Missouri moved to 3-2 in conference after a gutsy win against Oklahoma and comes into this weekend with its back against the wall when it comes to the College Football Playoff, but there’s no more margin for error going forward.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Gamecocks and Tigers square off in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how South Carolina and Missouri compare in this Week 12 college football game.

Missouri vs. South Carolina score prediction

The models are taking the Gamecocks over the Tigers at home, but in a closely-fought game.

SP+ predicts that South Carolina will defeat Missouri by a projected score of 26 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 2.6 points.

The model gives the Gamecocks a 56 percent chance to win the game outright over the Tigers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 win percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

South Carolina vs. Missouri odds, how to pick the game

South Carolina is a 13.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel set the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it lists the moneyline odds for South Carolina at -650 and for Missouri at +470 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Missouri +13.5
• South Carolina to win -650
• Bet over 43.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors, who expect the Tigers will give the Gamecocks a scare, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Missouri is getting 59 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin within the double-digit point spread.

The other 41 percent of wagers project South Carolina will win and cover the spread by at least two touchdowns.

South Carolina vs. Missouri splits

South Carolina ranks 17th nationally by averaging 12.7 points better than the competition so far this season, when adding up the points in the wins and losses.

Missouri is top 50 in the country by scoring 4.4 points more than opponents on average in 2024.

Those averages have diverged over the last three games.

South Carolina is 23.7 points better than opponents in that span, with that average being tilted heavily by a 22-point win over Texas A&M two weeks ago.

Missouri has fared 7.7 points worse than its competition over that time, and that number was skewed by a 34-0 loss at Alabama recently.

Playing at home this season, the Gamecocks have averaged 8.8 points better than opponents, while the Tigers have been 7.7 points worse than the competition when on the road.

Computer predictions

Most other analytical models also favor the Gamecocks to take down the Tigers this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

South Carolina is a big favorite in the game, projected to come out ahead in the majority 69.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Missouri as the expected winner in the remaining 30.5 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

South Carolina is projected to be 7.4 points better than Missouri on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How to watch Missouri vs. South Carolina

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 4:15 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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