South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt in this Week 11 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt score prediction / Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

A big SEC matchup kicks off this weekend as Vanderbilt plays host to South Carolina in a meeting between resurgent conference teams. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

South Carolina improved to 3-3 in SEC play after dominating ranked Texas A&M and, while it didn’t earn a spot in the AP poll, the College Football Playoff selection committee included the team at No. 24 in its first rankings.

Vanderbilt moved to 6-3 overall with a win at Auburn a week after playing Texas to a field goal loss and wanting to make a statement here before closing out against LSU and Tennessee.

What do the analytics models suggest for when the Gamecocks and Commodores meet in this SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how South Carolina and Vanderbilt compare in this Week 11 college football game.

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt score prediction

So far, the models project a narrow victory for the Gamecocks against the Commodores.

SP+ predicts that South Carolina will defeat Vanderbilt by a projected score of 30 to 23 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.5 points.

The model gives the Gamecocks a 68 percent chance of outright victory over the ‘Dores.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt odds

South Carolina is a 3.5 point favorite against Vanderbilt, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for South Carolina at -164 and for Vanderbilt at +136 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• South Carolina -3.5
• Gamecocks to win -164
• Bet over 45.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in a minority of bettors, most of whom are taking the Commodores to make this a game against the Gamecocks, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Vanderbilt is getting 62 percent of bets to either win outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin to a field goal or less in a loss.

The other 38 percent of wagers project South Carolina will win the game and cover the narrow spread.

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt splits

Vanderbilt has averaged 3.6 points better than opponents overall this season, while South Carolina has been 11.6 points better than its competition across all games.

Those margins have widened slightly over the last three games, as the Commodores have been 5.7 points better than teams and the Gamecocks 16 points better than opponents in that time.

South Carolina has averaged 16.3 points better than teams when playing on the road while Vanderbilt has averaged 4.8 points more than the competition at home.

Computer predictions

Most other analytical models are also siding with the Gamecocks over the Commodores in this one.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

South Carolina is the narrow favorite, coming out ahead in 58.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Vanderbilt as the presumptive winner in the other 41.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate to a margin of victory? Expect the Gamecocks to cover the spread by this model, too.

South Carolina is projected to be 5.3 points better than Vanderbilt on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to that model’s latest forecast.

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt future predictions

South Carolina is eighth among SEC teams with a 10.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

And while a playoff berth isn’t really in the cards for the Gamecocks, a bowl game certainly is, as the models forecast they will win 7.6 games this season.

Vanderbilt is already bowl eligible and is expected to win 6.9 games this season, as the index forecasts just one more potential win on its schedule going forward.

How to watch South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 4:15 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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