Tennessee Volunteers vs. Oklahoma Sooners Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to expect as the Tennessee Volunteers and Oklahoma Sooners meet in this Week 4 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Oklahoma Sooners Prediction / Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The marquee game on the Week 4 college football schedule finds a pair of ranked conference rivals playing a new-look league game brought to us by realignment, as Tennessee visits Oklahoma in the Sooners’ SEC debut. Here’s what you need to know, along with our updated game prediction.

Let’s call this the Josh Heupel Bowl, as the former Oklahoma quarterback returns to Norman as Tennessee’s head coach in a matchup of SEC contenders looking to avoid their first loss of the season.

Big Orange has pulverized everything in its path through 3 games, outscoring its overmatched opponents 191 to 13, ranking 1st nationally with almost 64 points per game, placing 3rd in rushing and in scoring defense behind one of college football’s best front sevens.

Oklahoma won’t be quite that generous, but there is some concern for this team after it played closely against unranked opponents over the last two weeks.

The Sooners eked out a 16-12 victory against Houston, scoring just 2 second-half points, and led by 5 against Tulane in the fourth quarter last week before scoring 10 unanswered.

Brent Venables and Oklahoma need to use this game to show they belong in the SEC, especially with a much tougher schedule ahead, and Tennessee wants to show it can match up against quality competition after playing against some cupcakes early on.

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma prediction, preview

Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Prediction / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

When Oklahoma has the ball

Playing better on third down is of the utmost importance for the Sooners to play this close and keep the Volunteers’ offense off the field for any sustained period of time.

But that has proved a challenge so far: OU ranks just 109th nationally in third down offensive production, converting only 13 of 42 attempts for a 31 percent average. 

Tennessee ranks 2nd nationally in third down defense, allowing only 6 conversions against 38 attempts, a stifling 15.8 percent success rate.

But the Sooners have the skill threats to boost that average, led by quarterback Jackson Arnold, who has thrown for 484 yards and 7 touchdowns and leads the team with 159 rushing yards and 2 additional scores. 

Tennessee presents a formidable challenge in its defensive front, boasting a cadre of pass rushers who have the speed, size, and agility to consistently damage an Oklahoma offensive line that has struggled to incorporate its new rotation so far this season.

That front will also frustrate a Sooner ground game that is averaging a very average 4.34 yards per carry, but has a potential star in freshman back Taylor Tatum, who should see his carries increase this week as OU tries to stabilize its offense and eat some clock.

When Tennessee has the ball

Nico Iamaleava has played up to expectations in his limited exposure as Tennessee’s starting quarterback, going 4-0 overall and throwing for 698 yards with 6 TDs this season.

Vols back Dylan Sampson has balanced the offense out, rushing for 357 yards and 9 touchdowns already, averaging almost 8 yards per carry through 3 games.

Oklahoma’s defense has taken important steps forward in the last season-plus and comes into this game leading the nation with 10 takeaways, and linebacker Danny Stutsman’s 18 run stops are the most among any player in the country.

And the Sooners’ pass rush has looked efficient thus far, forcing opponents into a slew of mistakes when trying to throw the ball, and could bother the Vols’ good protection unit enough to force Iamaleava into some hurried throws and out of his rhythm.

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma odds

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Tennessee: -6.5 (-118)
Oklahoma: +6.5 (-104)

Over 56.5 points: -115
Under 56.5 points: -105

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma Prediction

Nico Iamaleava has not played in a true road game for the Vols yet, and his inexperience could show early on as he works against not just OU’s pass rush, but the loud Sooner faithful under the lights.

But games like this in the SEC are won and lost at the line of scrimmage, and on paper Tennessee still clearly owns that advantage, pitting a strong front seven against a very suspect OU line.

Oklahoma has struggled to generate offensive consistency and put up points when it has the opportunity, and the Volunteers have the bodies to make that a problem again.

Both these defenses are playing good football at the moment, which could bring down the eventual total, but Tennessee’s combination of strangling the Sooners at the line, having the superior ground game, and more weapons to test the deeper field will be the difference.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Tennessee wins 34-24
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Tennessee vs. Oklahoma score prediction from expert model

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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