Tennessee vs. Arkansas football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Tennessee vs. Arkansas by the football model that picks winners.

Tennessee vs. Arkansas football prediction / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

SEC football gets underway this weekend as No. 4 Tennessee comes off its open week and is looking to improve to 2-0 in conference play against Arkansas in college football’s Week 6 action.

Tennessee is No. 1 nationally in total defensive production, allowing just 176 yards per game and only 3.13 yards per play, and coming off a strong win at Oklahoma in another road SEC matchup two weeks ago.

Arkansas is 12 points away from being undefeated if not for a loss on the road to Oklahoma State and last week’s defeat against Texas A&M in the Southwest Classic.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction

As expected, the models are strongly in favor of the Volunteers in this road matchup.

Tennessee is projected to win the game in 82.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in 17.8 percent of sims.

Tennessee is projected to be 14 points better than Arkansas on the same field, in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Vols to cover the spread.

That’s because Tennessee is a 13.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 59.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -525 and for Arkansas at +400 to win outright.

Most bettors are expecting the Volunteers to win the game easily, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Tennessee is getting 58 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 42 percent of wagers expect Arkansas to keep the game within 2 touchdowns.

Tennessee is third among SEC teams with a 78.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Arkansas a 61.8 percent chance to become bowl eligible and a win projection of 5.9 games.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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