Tennessee vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Tennessee vs. Arkansas in this Week 6 college football game.

Tennessee vs. Arkansas score prediction / BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

SEC football kicks off under the lights as No. 4 Tennessee looks to stay undefeated on the road against Arkansas in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the game by the model that picks winners.

Tennessee remains perfect through 4 games and coming off an open weekend that followed a statement performance against Oklahoma, ranking 1st nationally in total defensive production and scoring offense at 54 points per game, while ranking 4th in rushing and 2nd in scoring defense.

Arkansas is just 12 combined points away from being undefeated after close losses at Oklahoma State and most recently in the Southwest Classic against rival Texas A&M, ranking top 30 in most offensive output and posting nearly 36 points per game on average.

What do the experts think of this week’s SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Arkansas and Tennessee compare on the same field in this Week 6 college football game.

Tennessee vs. Arkansas score prediction

As could be expected, the simulations favor the Volunteers over the Razorbacks this week.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 34 to 20 and to win the game by an expected margin of 14.4 points.

The model gives the Vols a strong 82 percent chance of outright victory against the Hogs.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

Tennessee vs. Arkansas odds

Tennessee is a 13.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -525 and for Arkansas at +400 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Tennessee -13.5
• Vols to win -525
• Bet under 58.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also strongly favor the Vols this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is projected to win the game in the majority 82 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in the other 18 percent of sims.

Tennessee is projected to be 14 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would also be enough for the Vols to cover the spread in the game.

That’s what most bettors predict will happen when looking over the most recent spread consensus picks for the game.

Around 58 percent of bets project that Tennessee will win the game and cover the spread.

And the remaining 42 percent of wagers expect Arkansas will either upset the Volunteers, or, more likely, keep the game within the line.

Tennessee is third among SEC teams with a 78.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Arkansas a win total projection of 5.9 games and a 62.7 percent shot at becoming eligible to play in a bowl game.

How to watch Tennessee vs. Arkansas

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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