Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Tennessee visits Arkansas in this Week 6 college football game with our updated prediction.

Tennessee vs. Arkansas game prediction 2024 / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

SEC football is back this weekend as No. 4 Tennessee hits the road a second-straight week in a matchup against Arkansas in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday night. Let’s check in with our latest prediction for the game.

Arkansas is 12 combined points away from being undefeated, holding leads against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, but ultimately losing those games as a result of ill-timed ball security issues and some offensive mistakes, resulting in a 3-2 mark.

Tennessee is angling for an SEC title and more, sitting at 4-0 behind the nation’s No. 1 ranked total defense, 1 of 2 teams to allow under 200 yards per game and under 800 yards total this season.

What can we make of the matchup?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Arkansas hosts Tennessee in this Week 6 college football game with our updated prediction.

Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction: What to watch

1. Hogs on the ground. Utah transfer back Ja’Quinden Jackson has been key to the Razorbacks’ offense, running for more than 100 yards in his first 3 games, and he leads the SEC with 509 rushing yards and is second with 9 touchdowns. 

Tennessee is 2nd in FBS against the run, allowing just under 51 yards per game on the ground. And while Jackson is 1 of 3 SEC backs to average more than 100 yards per game, his output against conference teams is limited, averaging 56 yards despite playing against 2 of the league’s worst run defense teams.

2. Turnovers. Arkansas has suffered some very badly-timed turnovers this season, as quarterback Taylen Green threw a pick-six that allowed Oklahoma State to mount a comeback, and he threw another pick and then fumbled late in regulation last week. 

The Hogs are 89th in turnover margin and are second-worst in the SEC with 9 giveaways. The Vols have recovered 5 fumbles this season, and have forced 3 takeaways in their last three 3 games away from Rocky Top.

3. At the line. Stopping the run is Arkansas’ strength on defense thus far behind a decent front seven rotation, ranking 21st in FBS by allowing just 93 yards per game rushing.

Tennessee is 4th nationally with 290 rushing yards per game and lead back Dylan Sampson is averaging more than 112 yards himself and is 1 of 2 backs in the country with 10 rushing touchdowns.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models favor the Volunteers against the Razorbacks in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is projected to win the game in the majority 82.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in the remaining 17.9 percent of sims.

Tennessee is projected to be 14 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Tennessee is a 13.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 56.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -525 and for Arkansas at +400 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A decent majority of bets are projecting the Vols will get the better of the Hogs.

About 58 percent of bettors are expecting that Tennessee will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 42 percent of wagers suggest that Arkansas will either win in an upset, or, more likely, will keep the game under two touchdowns.

Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins?

There isn’t a phase in this game where Tennessee’s defense should be at any major disadvantage, especially when generating pressure from the nucleus of this unit, its elite front seven rotation.

And while Arkansas has struggled in pass protection during stretches this season, it is a relative strength when blocking for the run, resulting in the team’s strong rushing numbers to date.

The presence of mobile quarterback Taylen Green is a plus, as he can spice up the offense with a battery of scripted and unscripted runs to throw tacklers out of place, even if there are times when he forces a play that results in a turnover.

His scrambles and Jackson’s physical rushing style will find the Vols’ tacklers on the back foot often enough to keep it close, but the Razorbacks do have one marked weakness for UT to exploit.

Arkansas is third-worst in the SEC in pass defense, allowing just under 227 passing yards per game, and that’s despite playing against some substandard passing offenses so far.

Nico Iamaleava and Tennessee’s superb skill threats are another animal, and this feels like the game where Josh Heupel opens up the playbook a little more.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Tennessee wins 38-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Tennessee vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Tennessee vs. Arkansas

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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