Tennessee vs. Kentucky football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for Tennessee vs. Kentucky in this Week 10 college football rivalry game.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky football prediction / Brianna Paciorka/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

A classic SEC rivalry gets underway on Saturday as No. 7 Tennessee plays host to Kentucky under the lights. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Kentucky fell to 1-5 in SEC play after a loss to Auburn and is on a 3-game losing streak, ranking 124th in passing and 121st nationally in scoring offense average.

Tennessee is playing some of the nation’s toughest defense, a unit that helped ground Alabama in a signature victory that puts the team in playoff contention entering November.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky predictions

As expected, the simulations are siding strongly with the Vols over the Wildcats.

Tennessee is expected to win the game outright in the majority 90.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Kentucky as the presumptive winner in the remaining 9.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Volunteers came out ahead in 18,180 of the index’s calculations for the game, while the Wildcats edged out UT in the other 1,820 predictions.

What can we expect for a margin of victory in the matchup? Expect the Vols to be almost three touchdowns better than the Wildcats, according to the index.

Tennessee is projected to be 20.6 points better than Kentucky on the same field in the game’s most recent simulations, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for Big Orange to cover the spread against Big Blue.

That’s because Tennessee is a 16.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -900 and for Kentucky at +590 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a slight majority of bettors have more faith in the Wildcats to make it close, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Kentucky is getting 52 percent of bets to either win the game in an upset, or more likely to keep the final score under 17 points in a loss.

The other 48 percent of wagers project Tennessee will win the game and cover the big spread.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky future predictions

Tennessee is third among SEC teams with a 67.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That puts the Vols behind Texas (75%) and SEC leader Georgia (84.5%) in that category.

The model projects Tennessee will win 10.2 games this season.

And it gives Kentucky a 4.9 percent shot to become bowl eligible this season, as the index forecasts it will win 4.4 games in ‘24.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (61)
2. Georgia (1)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
11. Clemson
12. Iowa State
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Boise State
16. LSU
17. Kansas State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Ole Miss
20. SMU
21. Army
22. Washington State
23. Colorado
24. Illinois
25. Missouri

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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