Tennessee vs. Kentucky score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Tennessee vs. Kentucky in this Week 10 college football game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky score prediction / Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A classic SEC rivalry gets underway from Rocky Top as No. 7 Tennessee looks to take another big step against Kentucky on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Tennessee returns from its idle weekend after a signature victory against Alabama and moved the team to 3-1 in SEC play and in the playoff hunt behind one of the nation’s toughest defensive units entering November football.

Kentucky fell to 1-5 in conference games and on a 3-game losing streak, ranking 124th among 134 FBS teams in passing production and 121st nationally in scoring offense with 19 points per game.

What do the analytic models suggest for when the Volunteers and Wildcats meet in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tennessee and Kentucky compare in this Week 10 college football game.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky score prediction

As expected, the models are favoring Big Orange over Big Blue in this matchup.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Kentucky by a projected score of 32 to 15 and will win the game by an expected margin of 16.8 points in the process.

The model gives the Vols a strong 85 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky odds, picks

Tennessee is a 16.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -880 and for Kentucky at +580 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Tennessee -16.5
• Vols to win -880
• Bet over 45.5 points

So far, a slight majority of bettors are siding with the Wildcats to keep it close against the Vols, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Kentucky is getting 52 percent of bets to either win outright in an upset, or more likely, to keep the game under 17 points in a loss.

The other 48 percent of wagers project Tennessee will win the game and cover the generous point spread.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky splits

Tennessee has been 21.7 points better than its opponents overall this season, compared to Kentucky averaging 0.8 points worse than the opposition in 2024.

Over the last three games, both those averages have diverged in opposite directions.

Tennessee has regressed to being 2.7 points better than the competition, while Kentucky has dropped to being 16.3 points worse than opponents in that time.

There is also a marked difference given the venue: Tennessee is 28 points better than opponents on average playing at home, and Kentucky is 12.5 points worse when on the road.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also favor the Volunteers over the Wildcats.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is expected to win the game in the overwhelming 90.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Kentucky as the presumptive winner in the remaining 9.1 percent of sims.

And the index foresees a big margin of victory for the Vols.

Tennessee is projected to be 20.6 points better than Kentucky on the same field in the latest projected simulations of the game, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky future predictions

Tennessee is third among SEC teams with a 68 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Vols will win 10.2 games this season.

Kentucky has an uphill climb to even play postseason football in 2024, according to the index.

UK will win 4.5 games this year and has a 5 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

How to watch Kentucky vs. Tennessee

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 7:45 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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