Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Tennessee and Kentucky meet in this Week 10 college football rivalry matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky Prediction / Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

An SEC border rivalry kicks off under the lights on Rocky Top as No. 7 Tennessee welcomes Kentucky in college football’s Week 10 action on Saturday night. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Tennessee is coming off its idle week and fresh from a signature victory over Alabama that, thanks to its dominant defense, puts the team squarely in College Football Playoff contention as we move into November football.

Kentucky slipped to 1-5 in SEC play and is on a three-game losing streak behind one of the nation’s least-productive offensive efforts in the country.

What can we expect as the Volunteers and Wildcats meet in this SEC rivalry clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as Tennessee and Kentucky square off in this Week 10 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction: What to watch

1. On the ground. Dylan Sampson powers Tennessee’s offense and is the engine behind a rushing attack that ranks 7th nationally with 241.6 yards per game, while he personally is 13th in FBS with 838 yards, eclipsing 100 yards in all but 1 game this year. Kentucky is 52nd against the rush nationally and has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns in 2024.

2. Slow starts. Tennessee hasn’t scored a point in the first half of its last three straight games, the only team nationally to do so, thanks to a combination of stilted offensive rhythm, mistakes, some missed plays, and inconsistent production.

Kentucky is 17th nationally, allowing just 8.6 first half points this season, but that average jumped to 17 points over the last 3 outings, 12th worst in the Power Four.

3. Strength vs. Weakness. Tennessee’s defense is a behemoth right now, ranking 3rd in FBS in total production, allowing just 4.03 yards per play, 2.24 yards per carry, allowing 11.6 points per game, and just 4 passing touchdowns total, all top-five marks nationally, among others.

Kentucky is officially the worst offense in the SEC right now, ranking at or near the bottom in most key categories, averaging just under 2 touchdowns per game, and is yet to score more than 20 points in a conference game this season.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky splits

Tennessee has been 21.7 points better than its opponents overall this season, compared to Kentucky averaging 0.8 points worse than the opposition in 2024.

Over the last three games, both those averages have seriously diverged.

Tennessee has regressed to being 2.7 points better than the competition, while Kentucky has dropped to being 16.3 points worse than opponents in that time.

There is also a marked difference given the venue: Tennessee is 28 points better than opponents on average playing at home, and Kentucky is 12.5 points worse when on the road.

Tennessee’s offense vs. Kentucky’s defense

Tennessee is averaging 34.7 points per game this season, ranking No. 20 nationally in that category, compared to a Kentucky defense that surrenders 19.1 points per game.

Big Orange ranks 25th in FBS with 432.8 yards per game of total offensive output and goes against a Wildcat defense that ranks 15th by surrendering 310.4 yards per game on average.

On a per snap basis, the Volunteers average 0.475 points per play for a No. 27 ranking nationally, while UK allows 0.353 points per play this season, ranking 60th.

Tennessee is averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense in 2024, ranking No. 42 in FBS, while Kentucky is allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense, ranking 67th.

On third down this season, Tennessee ranks 34th nationally by converting 48 of its 108 opportunities for a 44.44 percent success rate.

Kentucky has allowed teams to move the chains 37 times out of 89 chances for 41.57 percent success on third down defense.

Tennessee is efficient in the red zone, coming away with points on 30 of 34 chances for an 88.24 percent success rate, and 22 of those 30 scores (64.71%) are touchdowns.

Kentucky has allowed 21 scores on 28 red zone chances for a 75 percent success rate on defense, and 14 of those scores have been touchdowns (58.3%).

Kentucky’s offense vs. Tennessee’s defense

Kentucky is averaging 19.1 points per game this season, ranking 111th out of 134 FBS teams, compared to a Vols defense that ranks 5th in allowing 13 points per game.

UK averages just under 308 yards per game of total offense, ranking 114th nationally, while Tennessee ranks 3rd in surrendering 264.3 yards per game on defense.

Kentucky averages 0.294 points per play this season, good for 107th in the country, compared to the Volunteers, who rank No. 4 in FBS by allowing 0.193 points per play.

The Wildcats rank 113th nationally with 4.7 yards per play on average, while the Vols are 2nd in FBS with 3.9 yards per play allowed on defense.

Kentucky is 82nd nationally in third down production, moving the chains on 38 of 98 chances for a 38.78 percent success rate.

Tennessee is No. 1 in FBS allowing 23 of 97 conversions on third down for 23.71 percent success against opponents.

Working from scoring position, Kentucky has turned 18 of 22 chances into points this season, and 12 of those scores (54.55%) are touchdowns.

The Vols are 5th nationally by surrendering 15 of 23 chances into points defensively, but just 8 of those scores were converted into touchdowns (34.78%).

What the analytics say

As expected, most computer projections are siding with the Vols over the Wildcats.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is expected to win the game in the overwhelming 90.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Kentucky as the presumptive winner in the remaining 9.1 percent of sims.

The model forecasts that Tennessee will emerge 20.6 points better than Kentucky on the same field, according to the latest projections.

Who is favored?

Tennessee is a 16.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -880 and for Kentucky at +580 to win outright.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction: Who wins?

There are some lingering questions around the relative inconsistency of Tennessee’s vertical game as quarterback Nico Iamaleava is yet to really live up to all that potential, but in the meantime this offense is getting enough from a potent ground attack to make up the difference.

This week, that should be enough as the Vols pound away at a Kentucky front seven that has markedly deteriorated since it helped upset Ole Miss on the road earlier this year.

Kentucky can’t really move the ball. It’s 119th out of 134 FBS teams in total production, averaging under 5 yards per play and is 121st in scoring.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Tennessee wins 37-13
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Tennessee vs. Kentucky score prediction by expert model

How to watch Kentucky vs. Tennessee

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 7:45 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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