Tennessee vs. NC State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict as the Tennessee Volunteers meet the NC State Wolfpack in this SEC vs. ACC matchup on the Week 2 college football schedule.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. NC State Wolfpack Prediction / Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

This weekend brings us a notable SEC vs. ACC matchup between ranked teams as the Tennessee Volunteers and NC State Wolfpack face off in college football's Week 2 action on Saturday.

Nico Iamaleava put on another show in his first regular season start, throwing for 314 yards and scoring three touchdowns in the air while Vols tailback Dylan Sampson added three touchdowns rushing in a 69-3 rout over Chattanooga in the opener.

Veteran transfer quarterback Grayson McCall threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns in his first game with the Wolfpack, while transfer back Jordan Waters added 2 scores on 124 yards, but NC State played Western Carolina close for most of last week's debut.

What can we expect from the matchup? Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for when Tennessee and NC State meet on Saturday.

Tennessee vs. NC State prediction

The simulations favor a solid win for the Volunteers against their ACC challenger this week.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat NC State by a projected score of 34 to 20 and to win the game by an expected 14.2 points.

The model gives the Vols a strong 81 percent chance of victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Point spread

Tennessee is a 7.5 point favorite against NC State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 61.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -320 and for NC State at +255.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Tennessee -7.5
• Vols to win -320
• Bet under 61.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also suggest the Volunteers have the advantage over the Wolfpack.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is projected to win the game in an overwhelming 87.9 percent of the computer's simulations, while NC State comes out the winner in the remaining 12.1 percent of sims.

The model suggests that Tennessee will be 19 points better than NC State on the same field in both teams' current composition, enough to cover this line.

Tennessee will win 9.2 games this season, according to the computer's projections and sits 4th among SEC teams with a 6 percent chance to win the conference title.

But there's a distinct gap between the Vols and other SEC title hopefuls, as Alabama places third in the conference with a 22.9 percent chance to win the league crown.

Texas is second in the SEC with a 25.3 percent chance to win the conference title, behind consensus favorite, and future Vols opponent, Georgia at 31.8 percent.

The index projects NC State will win 6.4 games this season with a mere 1.4 percent chance to win the conference championship, placing 10th among ACC teams.

Tennessee vs. NC State game time, schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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