Texas A&M vs. Arkansas football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Texas A&M vs. Arkansas by the football model that picks winners.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas football prediction / Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

SEC rivals reunite in The Southwest Classic this weekend as No. 24 Texas A&M faces off against Arkansas in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

Marcel Reed has helped stabilize the Aggies’ offense somewhat in the injury-induced absence of Conner Weigman at quarterback, but this attack still ranks just 116th nationally in passing output, a number made up for by A&M placing 8th in FBS in rushing for 256 yards per game.

That offense will be challenged by Arkansas, which comes into the matchup ranked 14th nationally in rush defense, allowing under 83 yards per game and just 3.01 yards per carry on a team that’s 8 points away from being undefeated after dropping a heartbreaking road loss at Oklahoma State earlier this season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M predictions

So far, the models are favoring the Aggies to move to 2-0 in SEC play.

Texas A&M comes out as the projected winner in a majority 56.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in the remaining 43.8 percent of sims.

Texas A&M is projected to be 2.2 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Aggies to cover the spread against the Razorbacks.

That’s because Texas A&M is a 4 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 52.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -190 and for Arkansas at +160 to win outright.

Bettors currently have more faith in Arkansas heading into this SEC matchup.

A solid majority of them, 63 percent, predict the Razorbacks will either beat the Aggies in an upset or keep the game within 4 points.

The other 37 percent of wagers forecast that Texas A&M will win the game and cover the spread.

Texas A&M is projected to defeat Arkansas by an implied score of 28 to 24 when taking the point spread and total into consideration, resulting in a push and the total going under.

FPI forecasts that Texas A&M will win 7.5 games this season and has a 9.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

The model expects Arkansas to win 6.5 games and gives it a 3.5 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 poll

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (44)
2. Georgia (13)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Miami
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Utah
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. Clemson
18. Iowa State
19. Illinois
20. Oklahoma State
21. Oklahoma
22. BYU
23. Kansas State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boise State

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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