Texas A&M vs. Auburn score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Texas A&M vs. Auburn by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas A&M vs. Auburn score prediction 2024 / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

A late-season SEC matchup kicks off on Saturday as No. 15 Texas A&M takes its playoff hopes on the road against Auburn. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas A&M is currently outside the College Football Playoff bracket projection, but is still sitting in second-place in the SEC standings and looking ahead to a huge game against rival Texas in the regular season finale next weekend.

Auburn just a paltry 1-5 in SEC play in Hugh Freeze’s first year as head coach, losing 5 of its last 7 games, third-worst in the conference, and 61st nationally in scoring output.

What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Aggies and Tigers square off in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas A&M and Auburn compare in this Week 13 college football game.

Texas A&M vs. Auburn score prediction

As expected, the models are going with the Aggies over the Tigers, but by a very close margin.

SP+ predicts that Texas A&M will defeat Auburn by a projected score of 26 to 22 and win the game by an expected margin of 3.2 points in the process.

The model gives A&M a narrow 58 percent chance of outright victory against the Tigers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

Texas A&M vs. Auburn odds, how to pick the game

Texas A&M is a 2.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel set the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -130 and for Auburn at +108 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Texas A&M -2.5
• Aggies to win -130
• Bet over 45.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a big majority of bettors who are taking the Aggies to cover the narrow line on the road against the Tigers, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas A&M is getting 73 percent of bets to win the game and cover the point spread.

The other 27 percent of wagers project Auburn will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under a field goal in a loss.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also expect the Aggies to take down the Tigers this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas A&M is a narrow favorite in the game, coming out ahead in 57.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Auburn as the expected winner in the remaining 42.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas A&M is projected to be 2.8 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Rounding that number up, the projection indicates the Aggies will win the game by a field goal, also enough to cover this narrow point spread.

Texas A&M vs. Auburn future projections

Texas A&M is sixth among SEC teams with an 11.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Aggies will win 8.8 games this season.

Auburn is third from the bottom in the SEC when it comes to forecasting postseason eligibility.

With just two games left in the regular season, the Tigers have a 4 percent chance at becoming bowl eligible and are projected to win 4.5 games.

How to watch Texas A&M vs. Auburn

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Auburn, Ala.

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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