Texas A&M vs. Missouri prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Texas A&M hosts Missouri in this Week 6 college football game with our updated prediction.

Texas A&M vs. Missouri game prediction / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The only matchup this weekend with ranked teams on the same field finds No. 9 Missouri in its first road test against No. 25 Texas A&M in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Let’s make our updated prediction for the game.

Missouri is on an 8 game win streak and coming off an open weekend, but played its last two games closer than hoped, edging out Boston College and Vanderbilt by a combined 11 points.

Since dropping a 10-point decision to Notre Dame in the opener, the Aggies have won four straight games and became the first SEC team to start 2-0 in conference play, beating Florida and Arkansas.

What can we expect in the game?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Missouri and Texas A&M meet in this Week 6 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Texas A&M vs. Missouri prediction: What to watch

1. Ags on the ground. Texas A&M’s passing output is susceptible since the injury to Conner Weigman, meaning it’s Le’Veon Moss and the ground game picking up the slack, and with quite an effect so far.

Moss is averaging more than 94 yards per game rushing and the team is posting more than 230 yards on the ground on average, ranking No. 13 among FBS teams this season.

Missouri is a solid No. 19 nationally against the run, allowing just under 92 yards per game from opposing backs, surrendering just 2.84 yards per attempt and a single touchdown.

2. Who’s the QB? Missouri prefers it’ll be Marcel Reed under center and not Weigman, who is questionable to play and will be a game-time decision.

Reed isn’t a credible threat as a passer, as A&M ranks just 117th nationally in passing output, but he’s an agile runner and solid in scoring position, accounting for the team’s last 8 straight TDs.

Missouri has been decent up front in containing more mobile quarterbacks, holding Thomas Castellanos and Diego Pavia mostly in check over the last 2 games.

3. At the line. Missouri can pack a punch offensively, as quarterback Brady Cook has thrown for 200 yards in the last 4 games, dealing to elite skill threats like Luther Burden and Theo Wease, and Nate Noel is averaging 5.5 yards per carry against ranked teams this season and 6.4 ypc overall.

That production is contingent on Missouri’s ability to protect its backfield, and it will be challenged against a Texas A&M front seven that is a team strength this season.

Nic Scourton anchors the line, racking up 3 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss already, and other leaders up front include Shemar Stewart and Shemar Turner, altogether a trio that has proven able to consistently generate pressure and throw opposing passers off their timing and destroy plays.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models differ on the outcome of this game, which is expected to be very close.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Missouri is the current favorite, by a slight edge, projected to win the game in 51.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Texas A&M as the favorite in the remaining 48.2 percent of sims.

But it’ll be a close one, as Missouri is expected to be just 0.7 points better than Texas A&M on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Texas A&M vs. Missouri prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Texas A&M is a 2.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -130 and for Missouri at +110 to win outright.

Texas A&M vs. Missouri prediction: Who wins?

Missouri has the talent edge on the offensive side of the ball, boasting the more productive quarterback-receiver pairing, and presents a challenge to the Aggies in the defensive front.

But while Missouri’s receivers have the juice to get behind some of A&M’s secondary defenders, Cook will be under serious pressure on something like half his throws, which will have a progressively negative effect on the Tigers’ ability to control the tempo offensively on the road.

A&M has a little more talent on the lines, a mobile quarterback who can spice up the offense with some effective gainers, and enough of a rushing threat to menace Mizzou in the trenches.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas A&M wins 27-24
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Missouri vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert model

How to watch Missouri vs. Texas A&M

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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