Texas A&M vs. South Carolina football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert analytical model offers a prediction for Texas A&M vs. South Carolina in this Week 10 college football game.

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina football prediction / Will McLelland-Imagn Images

Fresh off a statement win at home, No. 10 Texas A&M goes on the road against South Carolina on Saturday night. Let’s check in on the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Texas A&M remains the only team still undefeated in SEC play and has just one loss on the year coming off a huge win against LSU and moving into playoff consideration.

South Carolina moved to 2-3 in conference games after a dominant showing against Oklahoma and sets its tough defensive line against the Aggies’ ground game this week.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina predictions

So far, the models are giving the Aggies an edge over the Gamecocks, but by a narrow margin.

Texas A&M is projected to win this road game in 54.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves South Carolina as the presumptive winner in the remaining 45.9 percent of sims.

In total, the Aggies came out ahead in 10,820 of the index’s simulations of the game, while the Gamecocks edged out A&M in the other 9,180 predictions.

And the index suggests a very close win for the Aggies in the process.

Texas A&M is projected to be just 1.5 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Aggies to cover the spread.

That’s because Texas A&M is a 2.5 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -135 and for South Carolina at +115 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a plurality of bettors expect the Aggies to take out the Gamecocks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas A&M is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow spread.

The other 38 percent of wagers project South Carolina will either win the game in an upset, or will keep the game under a field goal margin in a loss.

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina future predictions

Texas A&M is fifth among SEC teams with a 47.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Aggies a win total prediction of 9.6 games this season.

South Carolina enters this weekend with a 1.1 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff, but should be a sure thing to make the postseason.

FPI projects the Gamecocks will win 6.9 games and have a 92 percent chance to play in a bowl.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (61)
2. Georgia (1)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
T-11. Clemson/Iowa State
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Boise State
16. LSU
17. Kansas State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Ole Miss
20. SMU
21. Army
22. Washington State
23. Colorado
24. Illinois
25. Missouri

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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