Texas A&M vs. South Carolina prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Texas A&M and South Carolina meet in this Week 10 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina Prediction / Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

An intriguing SEC matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 10 Texas A&M hits the road against challenger South Carolina on Saturday night. Here’s what you should watch for, along with our updated prediction for the game.

What can we expect as the Gamecocks and Aggies square off in this SEC clash?

Here’s what you should watch out for as South Carolina and Texas A&M meet in this Week 10 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina prediction: What to watch

1. On the ground. Texas A&M comes into the game ranked No. 2 in the SEC and No. 10 in FBS while averaging 5.31 yards per carry with 21 touchdowns. South Carolina is 3rd in the SEC and 16th nationally against the run, allowing just under 102 yards per game and 2.82 yards per run, but has allowed 10 touchdowns.

2. Battle at the lines. Both these teams are dominant up front on the defensive side of the ball, as Texas A&M averages 2.38 sacks per game and has 19 on the year, while South Carolina is 3rd with 28 total sacks while averaging 4 per game.

Carolina is 13th with 57 tackles for loss this season and is 7th nationally with 8.14 tackles for loss per game on average, while A&M is 13th with 57 TFLs total and averaged 7.13 negative plays per game, ranking 15th in the country.

But there’s one notable weakness in the trenches: the Gamecocks rank 130th among 134 FBS teams by allowing 64 tackles for loss all year, is 133rd with 4.57 sacks surrendered per game and 32 total, and is dead-last nationally by allowing 9.14 negative plays per game. Advantage, Aggies.

3. Who’s the QB? Texas A&M has a decision to make, between last week’s starter Conner Weigman, or the guy he was benched for, the dual threat Marcel Reed, whose 3 rushing touchdowns spurred the Aggies’ comeback win over LSU.

Weigman is the pass-first option, although he’s completing just 56.9 percent of his throws, and there have been concerns around a group of A&M receivers who have been inconsistent this season.

The decision for Mike Elko: Play a more one-dimensional, run-centric offense that can perhaps double its production with Reed, or take another chance on Weigman in an effort to spread the offense out and give the Gamecock defense more looks?

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina splits

So far this season, both teams average exactly 9.9 points better than the opposition when accounting for scoring margins in wins and losses.

But over the last three games, those averages have diverged: Texas A&M has improved to being 18.7 points better than opponents, while Carolina’s average has evened out to 0.0 points. 

At home, the Gamecocks have been 5 points better on average than the competition, while the Aggies have proven 9 points better than other teams when playing on the road.

Texas A&M’s offense vs. South Carolina’s defense

Overall this season, Texas A&M is averaging 29.4 points per game and ranking 43rd in FBS in that category, against a South Carolina defense allowing 18.7 points per game, 14th nationally.

In terms of yardage, the Aggies rank No. 70 in the country with 382.9 yards per game while the Gamecocks are No. 10 nationally by surrendering 298.3 yards per game on average.

Measuring production on a per snap basis, Texas A&M ranks No. 40 in FBS with 0.437 points per play on average while South Carolina is 11th by surrendering 0.263 points per play.

A&M averages 5.7 yards per play on offense, good for 58th in FBS this year, but the Gamecocks are No. 5 defensively, allowing 4.2 yards per play.

Things even out on third down, as Texas A&M is 35th in the country, moving the chains on 43.62 percent of opportunities, while Carolina is 38th in surrendering 34.31 percent conversion success on defense.

In the red zone, the Aggies are nearly unstoppable, scoring on 96.97 percent of chances inside the opponents’ 20-yard line, with 72.73 percent of those scores being touchdowns, while South Carolina is 41st, allowing points on 80 percent of chances in scoring position.

South Carolina’s offense vs. Texas A&M’s defense

South Carolina averages 28.6 points per game this season, ranking 49th nationally in that category, compared to a Texas A&M defense that is 19th in surrendering 19.6 points per game.

In total yards, the Gamecocks are 95th nationally with 346.9 yards per game against an Aggies defense that is No. 43 in surrendering 346.4 yards per game on average.

Carolina is No. 59 in the country with 0.387 points per play this season, while Texas A&M allows 0.286 points per play on average, ranking No. 20 nationally.

On a per snap basis, the Gamecocks rank just 116th among 134 FBS teams by averaging 4.7 yards per play on offense, against an Aggies defense that allows 5.1 yards per play.

South Carolina struggles on third down offensively, ranking No. 110 in FBS by moving the chains on just 33.01 percent of opportunities. A&M allows opponents to convert 31.25 percent of the time.

Carolina has scored 19 times out of 23 red zone opportunities for an 82.61 percent success rate in scoring position. Of those 19 scores, 12 are touchdowns (52.17 percent).

Texas A&M allows opponents to score points 17 times out of 19 red zone opportunities for 89.47 percent success and 10 of those 17 scores have been touchdowns.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models side with the Aggies to take down the Gamecocks on the road.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas A&M is projected to win this road game in 54.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves South Carolina as the presumptive winner in the remaining 45.9 percent of sims.

Those narrow margins carry over into the FPI score projection for the game.

Texas A&M is projected to be just 1.5 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

Texas A&M is a narrow 2.5 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -140 and for South Carolina at +116 to win outright.

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina prediction: Who wins?

What the Aggies can do well on offense, the Gamecocks are good at stopping.

Texas A&M presents a credible challenge when running the ball and has improved its blocking effort in recent weeks, but the Gamecocks have the bodies to clog those interior running lanes and are bringing some formidable pressure off both edges to squeeze the pocket.

Columbia can be nuts, especially when the sun goes down, and that noise can throw the Aggies off schedule early on, particularly if they struggle throwing the ball again.

But South Carolina just isn’t that much of a threat when moving the ball, has not proven capable enough to protect itself up front, and is struggling with penalties that could only further keep this offense off balance.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas A&M wins 27-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Texas A&M vs. South Carolina score prediction by expert model

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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