Predicting each game on Texas' 2024 football schedule

As we kick off a historic 2024 college football season, early predictions for how the Texas Longhorns will fare in their SEC debut.

Early predictions for the Texas Longhorns' 2024 football schedule as they embark on their SEC debut this season. / Ricardo B. Brazziell-USA TODAY Sports

Hopes are higher than ever for the Texas Longhorns, coming off a Big 12 title and their first College Football Playoff appearance, and now heading into a historic 2024 season marked by joining the SEC and making a run at the expanded playoff.

With SEC membership comes a more difficult schedule, intriguing matchups all across the board, and the resurrection of the Longhorns' long-time rivalry against Texas A&M, one of the more highly-anticipated games of the season nationally.

What can we expect for Texas heading into the 2024 football season? With the help of ESPN's analytics model, let's make some early predictions for the Longhorns.

Predicting each Texas football game in 2024

1. Colorado State

Texas' chances: 98.0%

Don't look past some of the skill threats the Rams can throw at the Longhorn secondary in the season opener, and eight starters are back on a CSU defense that didn't surrender points easily.

2. at Michigan

Texas' chances: 65.1%

One of college football's biggest early-season dates at the Big House against the defending champs, but Michigan is a completely different team with new faces at key positions.

3. UTSA

Texas' chances: 93.0%

UTSA is being floated as one of the Group of Five's better squads with a chance to get the G5's playoff spot thanks to a skilled backfield and a stronger back seven defensive alignment.

4. UL Monroe

Texas' chances: 98.8%

A little early breather for the Longhorns to tune up on before heading into the SEC portion of their schedule, but the WarHawks should be an improved product from the year before.

5. Mississippi State

Texas' chances: 92.3%

Jeff Lebby leads a Bulldog offense that gained transfer quarterback Blake Shapen, but Texas should have the edge against an MSU defense that was 10th in the SEC a year ago.

6. Oklahoma

Texas' chances: 64.5%

The first Red River Shootout with an SEC logo on the field, currently leaning towards Texas to avenge last year's loss against a Sooners team that remains largely unproven on offense.

7. Georgia

Texas' chances: 47.5%

A bombshell matchup, and the only one Texas isn't favored in. Georgia returns a ton of key experience, can move the ball with ease, and will rush the quarterback with power. It's up to the Longhorns to repair their front seven alignment to stop the Bulldogs from dominating on the ground.

8. at Vanderbilt

Texas' chances: 92.4%

Vandy won two games a year ago and lost its two most important offensive players to the transfer portal, but it gets home field advantage in Nashville when the Longhorns come to town.

9. Florida

Texas' chances: 86.2%

Graham Mertz is back under center for the Gators with promising skill threats around him, but Florida's entire defensive rotation is suspect after an awful finish to last season, resulting in major coaching turnover on that side of the ball.

10. at Arkansas

Texas' chances: 83.7%

An old rival of the Longhorns, but one that's still yet to really find a rhythm under coach Sam Pittman, with several changes all over the roster and likely struggling to just make a bowl game.

11. Kentucky

Texas' chances: 89.4%

Bush Hamdan's pro-style offense could present some problems for the Longhorns, with UK bringing back important receiving threats and installing Brock Vandagriff at quarterback; the ex-Georgia signal caller is low on experience but was a highly-rated recruit.

12. at Texas A&M

Texas' chances: 70.8%

Another monster matchup for the Longhorns, reuniting with the rival Aggies after more than a decade, going on the road to Kyle Field against some agile skill players including quarterback Conner Weigman and a strong front seven unit led by Nic Scourton, the Big Ten sack leader a year ago.

Texas final record: 11-1

Texas Football Schedule 2024

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