Texas Longhorns vs. Clemson Tigers prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to expect as Clemson and Texas square off in a historic first round College Football Playoff matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Texas Longhorns vs. Clemson Tigers football game prediction 2024 / Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK

Clemson and Texas meet in a historic first round College Football Playoff this weekend. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Texas comes into the College Football Playoff on a very short list of teams that have national championship caliber, placing second nationally on the sportsbooks to win the title in 2024.

That’s despite two tough losses on the year, both to Georgia and the latest when the SEC championship was on the line, but working behind some of college football’s very best defense.

Clemson was an early College Football Playoff dynasty under Dabo Swinney’s leadership, winning two CFP national championships, but hasn’t been in the field since the 2020 season.

And it took some doing to get in this one: the Tigers lost to rival South Carolina in the season finale, but Miami’s loss the same day allowed them to qualify for the ACC Championship Game, which they won against favorite SMU in a thriller to earn a playoff berth.

What can we expect as the Longhorns welcome the Tigers in this historic postseason matchup?

Here’s what you should watch on the field as Clemson and Texas square off in the first round College Football Playoff game, with our updated prediction.

Texas vs. Clemson prediction: What to watch

1. The big one. Quinn Ewers may not have always been perfectly consistent this season, but the Longhorns quarterback still commands one of college football’s most formidable deeper passing attacks, ranking third nationally with 65 completed passes of 20-plus yards downfield.

That could be a problem for Clemson’s otherwise-gifted pass defense alignment. The unit is allowing sub-56 percent completion overall from opposing passers, but is vulnerable against the long ball, in particular: its 41 passes allowed of 20-plus yards rank a dismal 91st in FBS this year.

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2. Magic number. That, for Texas, could be 100. When the Longhorns run for that many yards in a game, they’re undefeated.

In its two losses, Texas ran for a combined 60 yards on 55 carries, averaging all of 1.09 yards per carry.

And despite Clemson’s overall defensive talent up front, its run stop has been susceptible at times this season, ranking a meager 73rd in that category and allowing more than 4.5 yards per carry.

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3. Clemson’s injuries. Critical to pulling off this upset will be Clemson’s ability to balance its offense and churn out regular gains on the ground, but its rushing capacity is in some duress as lead back Phil Mafah is dealing with a shoulder injury and backup Jay Haynes is out with an ACL tear.

That puts more emphasis on Clemson being able to adequately block for quarterback Cade Klubnik, whose own rushing skill will be called upon more than usual in this game.

But the Tigers are a mere 82nd nationally in negative plays allowed, one mere statistical measure of an underlying concern, going against a very dominant Texas front seven that is the anchor of the nation’s third-ranked total defense, 15th against the run and first overall against the pass.

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Who is favored?

Texas is a 12.5 point favorite against Clemson, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the playoff.

FanDuel set the total at 50.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -500 and for Clemson at +375 to win outright.

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Clemson vs. Texas prediction: Who wins?

Clemson would prefer to forget the last time it went up against a ranked SEC opponent, getting pounded in a 34-3 rout against Georgia in the season opener.

And while Clemson has rebounded and improved all over the field since then, the liabilities that were apparent in that game have been known to reappear at times during the year.

With the concern around the Tigers’ ability to run the ball, more pressure is on Klubnik to make up some of that difference with his legs and to get his receivers involved early.

But Clemson is a very average pass blocking team and its young wide receiver corps will struggle against a Longhorns secondary that is the most productive in the country.

Poor offensive balance and a progressive inability to make up for it by throwing the ball against some of the best tacklers in the country is too much to ask for this Clemson team.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas wins 27-17
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Texas vs. Clemson score prediction by football model

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How to watch Clemson vs. Texas

When: Sat., Dec. 21
Where: Austin, Tex.

Time: 4 p.m. ET | 3 p.m. CT
TV: TNT network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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