Texas Longhorns vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to expect as the Texas Longhorns meet the Michigan Wolverines in this Week 2 college football game with our updated prediction.

Texas Longhorns vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction / Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

The marquee matchup of the early 2024 season kicks off from the Big House this weekend as the No. 10 ranked defending national champion Michigan Wolverines face off against the No. 3 Texas Longhorns in college football's Week 2 action on Saturday.

This is now an SEC vs. Big Ten matchup after conference realignment, and a good result in this game would bode well for the Longhorns to prove their bona fides in college football's most ruthless, and most successful, league.

What can we make of Michigan? After winning its first national championship since 1997, the team lost its head coach, several key assistants, and a pile of the blue-chip skill players who helped rejuvenate the program over the last three seasons.

What remains? Much of the core of a pretty solid defense, a unit that saved the day in a close opener last week when cornerback Will Johnson recorded an 86-yard pick-six. That rotation will be tested against a Texas attack that returns quarterback Quinn Ewers and a battery of capable deep threats.

What can we make of the matchup? Here's what you should watch for as Texas and Michigan square off in this battle of blue-bloods from one of college football's great venues on Saturday.

Texas vs. Michigan prediction, preview

Texas Longhorns vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

Texas vs. Michigan game odds

Lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas: -7.5 (+100)
Michigan: +7.5 (-122)

Texas to win: -285
Michigan to win: +230

Over 41.5 points: -120
Under 41.5 points: -102

FPI picks: Texas 73.8% to win

What to watch for

1. Ground and pound. Despite its personnel losses, Michigan still wants to run the football, and with the return of CFB 25 cover artist Donovan Edwards in tandem with Kalel Mullings, who led the team in rushing last week, it should have the firepower to do so. Still, 30 percent of their combined runs went for two or fewer yards.

Going against the Longhorns' front will prove a far-tougher test; the unit ranked No. 2 nationally against the run last season, but notably lost two bricks in that wall this offseason as T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy turned pro.

2. Battle in the air. The game could be decided based on who, between the Texas wide receivers and the Michigan defensive backs, gets the early advantage. On paper, it's a toss-up between what could be the strengths of both teams right now.

Texas boasts good depth at receiver and can field some damaging speed on the perimeters, working with a quarterback can put the ball just about anywhere.

But the Wolverines play good pass coverage and don't leave lanes open. It's up to Texas to overwhelm Michigan's back seven with quantity and speed, and to the home side to stay disciplined and prevent any damaging after the catch yardage.

3. QB advantage. That's all on Texas. Ewers has the arm, the protection, and the targets to spread things out, and even his backup, former top recruit Arch Manning, is a blue-chip player at the position.

Ewers, good for 7 in 10 passes in his career, will be chased around by Michigan's good defensive front, but he can adjust to that pressure by moving the pocket and throwing his receivers open.

Michigan has no such luxury at the quarterback position, and will sorely miss having J.J. McCarthy behind center.

Davis Warren was 15 of 25 last week and 0 for 5 with a pick on 10-plus yarders. That won't work against a cadre of nimble Longhorn secondary fixtures who can over-match Michigan's relative bare cupboard at receiver.

Texas vs. Michigan prediction

Michigan went 8 straight possessions without a touchdown in the opener and, while it will place more emphasis on running the ball, it's too soon, based on the offense's very early returns, to expect this unit to contend with the size and speed edge the Longhorns have on the field.

With the advantage it has at quarterback and receiver, Texas won't feel to compelled to mount too consistent a rushing threat against Michigan's superb front, and will instead rely on Ewers to spread his targets out with a battery of intermediate throws that lure the coverage forward enough to strike on the long ball that will eventually come open.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas wins 26-17
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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