Texas Longhorns vs. Texas A&M Aggies prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch as Texas and Texas A&M reunite in this classic college football rivalry, with our updated prediction for the game.

Texas Longhorns vs. Texas A&M Aggies Prediction 2024 / Ricardo B. Brazziell-Imagn Images

Conference realignment has interrupted some of college football’s rivalry games, but the most recent round brought back one of the sport’s greatest animosities, as Texas and Texas A&M prepare to renew their rivalry on Saturday night.

And with plenty on the line, too, for both teams, as the winner between the Longhorns and Aggies will earn a spot in the SEC Championship Game to play against Georgia next weekend.

And the winner of that game will be in line for a place in the first 12-team College Football Playoff.

Texas and Texas A&M have not met on the same field since 2011, when A&M left the Big 12 for the SEC, ending a series that was played without interruption since 1915.

Now, the Longhorns are in the SEC, too, enabling one of college football’s great games to make a bombshell return under the lights in the season finale, with everything to play for.

What can we expect as the Aggies and The 12th Man welcome the Longhorns on Saturday?

Here’s what you should watch for as Texas and Texas A&M reunite in this Week 14 college football rivalry classic, with our updated prediction for the game.

Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction: What to watch for

1. On the ground. Texas A&M enters the game ranked 17th in FBS in rushing output, posting nearly 5 yards per carry and 26 touchdowns while averaging more than 208 yards per game.

The Aggies are behind only Tennessee among SEC teams in rushing offense and want to test the inside of a Longhorns’ front seven that has been superb against the run in conference play.

Texas is 14th nationally against the run, allowing just 3.06 yards per rush and its 6 touchdowns on the ground surrendered are the third-fewest nationally.

A&M building momentum running the ball is important as it comes in just 87th in the country in passing production, although Marcel Reed is coming off his best outing, with 297 yards and 3 touchdown passes in the loss at Auburn.

2. At the line. Texas A&M fields one of the nation’s most dominant defensive front fours, ranking top 20 with 7.09 negative plays created per game and has recorded 105 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus figures, also top 20 in the country.

A&M will try to generate the most intense pressure it has all season against Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, who is coming off an ankle issue sustained in last week’s game.

Texas is a pedestrian 59th in FBS in rushing, but has improved its output recently, and is coming off a season-best 250 yards rushing while averaging 5.3 yards per carry against Kentucky.

The Longhorns will have to run the ball successfully early on in order to test the Aggies’ front and extend drives, especially on third down, where the Aggies allow just 33 percent conversion, and give the defense a reason to respect the play-action and not unduly pressure Ewers in the pocket and force him into too many throws.

3. In the air. Texas comes into the game leading the SEC with 32 passing touchdowns and distributes the ball very well, with 4 receivers scoring at least 5 times this year. 

Gunnar Helm is Ewers’ primary target, catching 42 passes for 544 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Matthew Golden is tied for the SEC lead with 8 TD grabs despite posting under 50 yards per game.

Texas A&M has not turned out an elite product in pass defense this season, ranking 79th in FBS against opposing passers and just allowed 310 yards in the air against Auburn, and is second-worst in the SEC by allowing more than 272 yards passing per game.

Who is favored?

Texas is a 5.5 point favorite against Texas A&M, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the Lone Star Showdown.

FanDuel set the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -200 and for Texas A&M at +164 to win outright.

Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction: Who wins?

An intensely-fought rivalry game, making its highly-anticipated comeback, with postseason glory on the line, played in one of college football’s most raucous environments, under the lights.

Anything is possible.

What happens in the red zone should go a long way in determining how this game comes out.

Texas is third nationally, allowing just 11 touchdowns inside its 20-yard line this season, but Texas A&M is 2nd in FBS scoring 96 percent of the time in the red area, and 73 percent of those scores have gone for touchdowns.

A&M’s ability to extend drives by running the ball, having that extra runner in Marcel Reed the Longhorns will have to defend, and its efficiency in scoring position is a vital component of the team’s offensive strategy that should keep the game within a touchdown from start to finish.

Both these offenses are among the SEC’s best when it comes to scoring points, but the Longhorns’ top-ranked conference defense should make the ultimate difference.

And given that Texas A&M’s defense, particularly against the pass, has been a vulnerability over the last couple weeks, that could be the decisive matchup that tilts this in the Longhorns’ favor.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas wins 27-24
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Texas vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert football model

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College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

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How to watch Texas vs. Texas A&M

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: College Station, Tex.

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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