Texas vs. Arizona State football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Texas vs. Arizona State in the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl quarterfinal round from a model that simulates games.

Texas vs. Arizona State football prediction 2024 / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Texas and Arizona State square off in the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl quarterfinal game on New Year’s Day. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Texas improved to 12-2 on the year after dominating Clemson in a two-touchdown decision at home in the first round after fielding two 100-yard rushers in that game.

Arizona State is the reigning Big 12 champion and got to sit out the first round, giving some much-needed rest to lead tailback Cam Skattebo, one of the nation’s top rushers who has 1,568 yards on the ground this year to go with 19 touchdowns.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

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Texas vs. Arizona State prediction

So far, the models are siding strongly with the Longhorns, who are the biggest favorite on the field during this week’s quarterfinal round.

Texas is a dominant favorite according to the index, coming out ahead in the majority 79.7 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

Arizona State isn’t expected to win the game, at least according to the models, but it did come out ahead of the Longhorns in 20.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Longhorns won the game in 15,940 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Sun Devils edged out Texas in the other 4,060 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas is projected to be 11.9 points better than Arizona State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that still wouldn’t be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread against the Sun Devils.

That’s because Texas is a 13.5 point favorite against Arizona State, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -550 and for Arizona State at +400 to win outright.

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What the bettors say

A slight majority of bettors expect the Sun Devils to put up a better fight against the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Arizona State is getting 54 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin under two touchdowns in a loss.

The other 46 percent of wagers project Texas will win by at least two touchdowns and cover the generous point spread.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How to watch the 2024 Peach Bowl Game

When: Wed., Jan. 1
Where: Atlanta, Ga.

Time: 12 p.m. CT | 11 a.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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