Texas vs. Arizona State prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Texas and Arizona State meet in the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl quarterfinal round, with our updated prediction for the game.

Texas vs. Arizona State football prediction / Ricardo B. Brazziell-Imagn Images

Texas and Arizona State meet in the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl quarterfinal round on New Year’s Day. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Arizona State will make its College Football Playoff debut in this game after winning the Big 12 championship and earning a first round bye to start out.

Texas was a national semifinalist last season and earned a place in the playoff a second straight year as the SEC runner-up, and defeated Clemson at home in the first round last time out.

What can we expect as the Longhorns and Sun Devils square off to fight for a place in the semifinal round this year?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Texas and Arizona State meet in the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl quarterfinal round, with our updated prediction for the game.

Texas vs. Arizona State prediction: What to watch

1. Strength vs. Strength. Running back Cam Skattebo is the engine behind Arizona State’s offense, accounting for 1,568 yards this season, but he’s working against a Longhorns defense that is third in total production and 11th against the run allowing just 3.1 yards per carry.

Texas presents a formidable challenge with regards to their size and strength advantage on both lines of scrimmage, and will play the two most difficult fronts that Arizona State has faced this year.

And while the Sun Devils have markedly improved their own scrimmage play on both lines, the Longhorns will be challenged in this game more than any other this season.

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2. On the ground. Texas fielded two 100-yard rushers in the win against Clemson to start the first round, and will want to rely on Jaydon Blue and Quintevion Wisner once again in this game.

Blue ran for 973 yards and five touchdowns while Wisner covered 710 yards and scored eight times this past season, but now they’re running into a credible obstacle up front.

Arizona State comes into the game ranked second among Big 12 teams and 27th nationally out of 134 schools in rush defense, allowing just 118 yards per game to opposing backs this season.

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3. Test the deep field. Texas has not played its passing offense as consistently as it wants to with quarterback Quinn Ewers putting up some occasionally erratic numbers, throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns the last three games and being sacked nine times over that span. 

Arizona State is a mixed bag in pass defense, ranking just 97th among 134 FBS teams in success rate against the pass and is 70th overall in production, but is 7th nationally with 15 interceptions and is allowing opponents to complete under 59 percent of their passes.

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Who is favored?

Texas is a 12.5 point favorite against Arizona State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -480 and for Arizona State at +360 to win outright.

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Texas vs. Arizona State prediction: Who wins?

How each team fares in the red zone could ultimately determine the outcome of the game.

Texas is just 93rd in the country when scoring from inside the 20, with only 65 percent of its possessions resulting in touchdowns.

Arizona State allows opponents to score touchdowns about 67 percent of the time.

There’s also some concern when it comes to turnovers, as the Longhorns come into the game ranked 121st in the country with 23 giveaways, the fifth-most of any team.

Arizona State checks in ranked second nationally with just 8 giveaways on the year.

Skattebo should keep the Sun Devils’ offense churning out moderate gains, and keep the game close from start to finish, but the Longhorns have a more aggressive passing game that can open up some holes against ASU’s secondary when it counts.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas wins 34-24
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Texas vs. Arizona State score prediction by football model

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How to watch the 2024 Peach Bowl Game

When: Wed., Jan. 1
Where: Atlanta, Ga.

Time: 1 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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