Texas vs. Arizona State score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Texas vs. Arizona State in the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl quarterfinal game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas vs. Arizona State football prediction 2024 / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Texas and Arizona State are ready to square off in the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl quarterfinal game on New Year’s Day. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas moved into the quarterfinal round after playing a strong game against Clemson in the first round at home, fielding two 100-yard rushers in a two-touchdown victory over the ACC champs.

Arizona State earned a first round bye after dominating Iowa State to win the Big 12 championship and plays some of college football’s better rushing offense behind lead back Cam Skattebo.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Longhorns and Sun Devils meet in the playoff?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas and Arizona State compare in the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl quarterfinal game.

Texas vs. Arizona State score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the SEC contender over the Big 12 hopeful, but this projection includes the biggest margin of victory this week.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Arizona State by a projected score of 33 to 17 and will win the game by an expected margin of 16 points in the matchup.

The model gives the Longhorns a dominant 84 percent chance of victory over the Sun Devils.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 392-365-9 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage.

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Peach Bowl odds, how to pick the game

Texas is a 12.5 point favorite against Arizona State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -490 and for Arizona State at +365 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Texas -12.5
• Longhorns to win -490
• Bet under 51.5 points

Most bettors are taking the other side of this action, expecting the Sun Devils to compete against the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Arizona State is getting 54 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset over the Longhorns, or to keep the final margin under 13 points in a loss.

The other 46 percent of wagers project Texas will cover this generous point in a win to advance to the semifinal round.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Longhorns to handle the Sun Devils in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is the big favorite on the index, coming out ahead in the vast majority 79.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

And while Arizona State isn’t projected to win outright, it still came out ahead of the Longhorns in the other 20.6 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

When taking an average of all the computer’s simulations, Texas is projected to be 11.9 points better than Arizona State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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How to watch the 2024 Peach Bowl Game

When: Wed., Jan. 1
Where: Atlanta, Ga.

Time: 1 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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