Texas vs. Arkansas football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Texas vs. Arkansas in this Week 12 college football game by an analytical football model that simulates games.

Texas vs. Arkansas football prediction / Sara Diggins/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

SEC rivals kick off this weekend as No. 3 Texas hits the road against Arkansas. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical football model that simulates games.

Texas (8-1, 4-1 SEC) took advantage of movement at the top of the rankings and has a path to the SEC Championship Game starting with this week’s road game.

Arkansas dropped to 3-3 in SEC play after getting trounced by Ole Miss at home two weeks ago but can still throw the ball well, ranking 11th nationally in passing output this season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Texas vs. Arkansas predictions

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Longhorns over the Razorbacks.

Texas is the big favorite on the road, expected to win the game in the majority 85.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Arkansas as the presumptive upset winner in the remaining 14.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Longhorns came out ahead in 17,140 of the index’s calculations for the matchup, while the Razorbacks edged out Texas in the other 2,960 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas is projected to be 16.1 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread against the Hogs.

That’s because Texas is a 13.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -520 and for Arkansas at +385 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A majority of bettors expect the Longhorns to take care of the Razorbacks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas is getting 58 percent of bets to win the game and cover the double-digit spread.

The other 42 percent of wagers project Arkansas will either win the game outright in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin under two touchdowns in a loss.

Texas vs. Arkansas future projections

Texas is first among SEC teams with an 85.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Longhorns a win total projection of 10.9 games this season.

Arkansas has been out of playoff consideration for some time, but is a virtual lock to eventually become bowl eligible at 97.1 percent odds.

The index projects the Razorbacks will win 6.5 games in ‘24.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. BYU
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia
13. Boise State
14. SMU
15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas State
17. Colorado
18. Washington State
19. Louisville
20. Clemson
21. South Carolina
22. LSU
23. Missouri
24. Army
25. Tulane

How to watch Texas vs. Arkansas

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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