Texas vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Texas and Arkansas renew their football rivalry this weekend, with our updated prediction for the game.

Texas vs. Arkansas Prediction / John David Mercer-Imagn Images

An old Southwest Conference rivalry game kicks off in the SEC this weekend as No. 3 Texas hits the road against Arkansas. Here’s what you should watch for as the Longhorns and Razorbacks square off on Saturday, with our updated prediction for the game.

What is Texas playing for? Just about everything after moving into the top four after some prominent losses last week and sitting as the projected SEC champion and No. 2 seed in the selection committee’s latest bracket this week.

Arkansas is playing for bowl eligibility amid an up-and-down season that has seen the highs, like a win over then-No. 4 Tennessee, and the lows, like a 63-31 loss to Ole Miss at home.

What can we expect as the Longhorns and the Razorbacks meet in this SEC rivalry clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as Texas and Arkansas square off in this Week 12 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Texas vs. Arkansas prediction: What to watch

1. Going deep. Quinn Ewers and the 10th ranked Texas aerial attack should find some angles against an Arkansas pass defense that should give the quarterback and his receivers some quality target practice heading into late-season football.

Texas comes into the game ranked No. 10 nationally in total passing output and 9th in FBS in passing efficiency offense, going against a Razorbacks defense that is ranked last in the SEC and 125th out of 134 FBS teams by allowing 266 air yards per game and 116th in pass defense efficiency.

2. Hogs can move, too. Arkansas comes into the game ranked top-five nationally in total offensive production thanks to the occasionally-dynamic play of dual-threat quarterback Taylen Green.

The Razorbacks are 13th in FBS in third down conversions and scoring points in the red zone more than 83 percent of the time, while Green is 3rd in the SEC among quarterbacks in rushing.

As their quarterback goes, so goes the Hogs’ offense. When he’s on, this team can score points, but Green is also prone to turnovers as the team is just 89th in FBS in turnover margin.

It’s up to the Longhorns’ front seven to contain his mobility and apply pressure off the edges to force him into hurried decisions.

3. Explosive plays. Both these offenses can get off some big gainers when they have the ball. Each rank top-five nationally when it comes to plays of 20-plus yards: Texas is third with 69 of those plays and Arkansas isn’t far behind, ranking fifth with 60 such gains.

What the analytics say

Most football computer prediction models are siding with the Longhorns over the Razorbacks.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas comes out ahead in the overwhelming 85.9 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

The other 14.1 percent of sims forecast the Razorbacks will be able to pull off the giant upset.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory?

Texas is projected to be 16.1 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Texas vs. Arkansas prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Texas is a 12.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -480 and for Arkansas at +365 to win outright.

Texas vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins?

Arkansas should have Taylen Green under center after an injury scare that forced him from the Ole Miss game, and his legs will keep the Razorbacks able to match the Longhorns early on.

But while both these offenses have the power to reel off chunk plays and move the chains with regularity, only one of these defenses has the bodies to credibly step up and make a stop.

Texas is 4th nationally in scoring defense, No. 1 in FBS against the pass, second in total defense, top 15 in third down defense, and top 20 stopping opponents when they’re in the red zone.

Green might lead an attack that on paper can put up some serious yards, but that offense has a tendency to slow down when it comes to scoring, and should again opposite a strong Texas defense.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas wins 37-24
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Texas vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Texas vs. Arkansas

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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