Texas vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Texas vs. Arkansas in this Week 12 college football game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas vs. Arkansas football score prediction 2024 / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

An old college football rivalry kicks off from the SEC this weekend as No. 3 Texas hits the road against Arkansas on Saturday. Let’s check in with the new prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas (8-1, 4-1 SEC) took advantage of some late-season movement at the top of the rankings and has a path to the SEC Championship Game starting with this week’s road game against the Hogs.

Arkansas dropped to 3-3 in SEC play after getting trounced by Ole Miss at home two weeks ago but can still throw the ball well, ranking 11th nationally in passing output this season.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Longhorns and Razorbacks meet in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas and Arkansas compare in this Week 12 college football game.

Texas vs. Arkansas score prediction

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Longhorns over the Razorbacks in this one.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 36 to 18 and will win the game by an expected margin of 18.5 points in the process.

The model gives the Longhorns a strong 88 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 win percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

Texas vs. Arkansas odds, how to pick

Texas is a 13.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -500 and for Arkansas at +375 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Texas -13.5
• Longhorns to win -500
• Bet under 57.5 points

A majority of bettors expect the Longhorns to take care of the Razorbacks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas is getting 58 percent of bets to win the game and cover the double-digit spread.

The other 42 percent of wagers project Arkansas will either win the game outright in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin under two touchdowns in a loss.

Texas vs. Arkansas splits

Texas comes into the game ranked No. 3 nationally by averaging 26.8 points more than its opponents when counting up all the points this season.

Arkansas is ranked 74th in the country by playing 1.3 points worse than its opponents in 2024.

Those margins have diverged over the last three games for both teams.

Over that span, the Longhorns have been 6.7 points better than the competition, while the Razorbacks have averaged 7.7 points worse than opponents.

The scoring averages have also moved apart when considering the venue.

Texas has been 17.7 points better than opponents when playing on the road this season, while Arkansas has averaged 10.3 points worse than the competition at home.

Computer predictions

Most other analytical models are also taking the Longhorns as big favorites against the Hogs.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is the big favorite on the road, expected to win the game in the majority 85.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Arkansas as the presumptive upset winner in the remaining 14.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas is projected to be 16.1 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Texas vs. Arkansas prediction: What the analytics say

Texas vs. Arkansas future projections

Texas is first among SEC teams with an 85.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Longhorns a win total projection of 10.9 games this season.

Arkansas has been out of playoff consideration for some time, but is a virtual lock to eventually become bowl eligible at 97.1 percent odds.

The index projects the Razorbacks will win 6.5 games in ‘24.

How to watch Texas vs. Arkansas

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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